San Jose has a stronger recent case in goal than on the scoreboard. Yaroslav Askarov has put together a productive stretch, but the Sharks have scored just four goals in their last three games. Against Calgary on Monday, the question is whether they can give that goaltending enough support—or let another tight scoring night keep the Flames involved.
A modest favorite with a scoring problem
The DraftKings moneyline makes San Jose a modest -125 favorite, with Calgary at +105. The Sharks are 7–7–1 after losing three of their last four games, while the Flames are 6–8. Calgary has won six of its last 10, a better stretch than its overall record suggests.
San Jose’s last three games produced a 2–0 loss to Buffalo, a 3–2 win over Vancouver and a 5–1 loss to Ottawa. That sequence puts its offensive support at the center of the matchup. Even strong work in net leaves little room for error when the goals are scarce.
Michael Misa scored the Sharks’ only goal in Saturday’s loss to Ottawa. The game was tied after one period before the Senators scored three times in the second. San Jose needs a more sustained scoring response than it managed that afternoon.
Askarov’s recent work gives the Sharks a foothold
Across his last five starts, Askarov has stopped 152 of 164 shots for a .927 save percentage. He allowed two goals or fewer in four of those five appearances. That’s the clearest recent strength supporting San Jose’s position as a modest favorite.
His workload in that stretch has varied considerably: he faced 40 shots against Buffalo and 43 against Ottawa, alongside three games with between 25 and 31 shots against. The results give San Jose a recent example of strong goaltending under different shot loads.
Alex Nedeljkovic was in goal for Saturday’s 5–1 loss to Ottawa. Askarov’s recent performance is encouraging, but the Sharks still need to turn it into team results by finding more offense.
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Wolf and Calgary bring a different recent picture
Dustin Wolf stopped 20 of 22 shots in his latest start, Calgary’s 6–2 win over Seattle on Friday. Across his last five appearances, including one relief outing, he has saved 114 of 131 shots for an .870 save percentage. The Seattle game was a better result than that broader recent stretch.
Calgary then lost 5–2 at Colorado on Saturday with Arsenii Sergeev in goal. Joel Farabee and Martin Pospisil scored for the Flames, who fell behind 4–0 during the second period. As with San Jose, the most recent team loss shouldn’t simply be assigned to Monday’s goalie.
The Flames’ scoring has swung sharply lately. They scored five against Toronto and six against Seattle, but were shut out at Edmonton between those wins. That variation is a useful counterweight to San Jose’s recent low-scoring games: Calgary has shown it can generate a much more productive night.
Two competing paths around the 6.5 total
The total is 6.5. San Jose’s last three games stayed Under their totals, while three of Calgary’s last four went Over. Those different patterns fit the matchup’s main tension: limited recent Sharks scoring and Askarov’s strong stretch meet a Flames team whose offensive output has been far less consistent.
Wolf repeating his Seattle performance would make San Jose’s search for goals more difficult. Calgary finding another productive scoring night would put more pressure on Askarov and the total. The important comparison is between each goalie’s recent work and the support his team can provide, rather than treating either club’s Saturday loss as a forecast.
Askarov’s recent stopping record gives San Jose a credible foundation, but its modest favorite status still asks for more support from an offense with four goals in three games. Calgary has shown the scoring to challenge that foundation, and Wolf’s Seattle start offers a stronger counter than his five-appearance save percentage alone. For the Sharks, sustained offense would make the clearest difference: relying on Askarov to carry another low-scoring night leaves Calgary room to stay close.
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