Vegas has won its last two games without needing a scoring outburst. Buffalo has won four of its last five, but its recent success also has a quieter foundation: the Sabres have allowed two goals in each of their last three games. The Golden Knights have been finding ways through tight finishes; Buffalo just showed it can turn a close game into something much more comfortable. That leaves a useful question for Sunday: does the Sabres’ recent restraint hold up, or will they need another big scoring night?
Two ways to build a winning stretch
Vegas followed a 3-2 loss at Boston with a 3-2 win at Pittsburgh and a 2-1 win at Detroit. All three games stayed under their posted totals. That sequence matters because the Golden Knights scored only seven goals across it: their latest wins haven’t required them to overwhelm anyone offensively.
In the Detroit victory, AP reported that Braeden Bowman tied the game in the third period before Trevor Connelly scored with 1:42 remaining. Carter Hart stopped 25 shots. Vegas recovered from a deficit and still kept the final score small.
Buffalo’s 5-2 win over Columbus took a different shape. AP reported two goals from Josh Norris and three assists from Owen Power, with the Sabres building a 5-1 lead in the second period. It was a reminder that Buffalo’s recent run includes more than narrow escapes.
The Sabres’ other four results in that five-game stretch were a 2-0 win at San Jose, a 7-6 win at Anaheim, a 3-2 win at Los Angeles and a 2-1 loss to Ottawa. They can win a low-scoring game, but the Anaheim result also shows how quickly the same team can end up trading goals.
A close price, with different defensive grades
Sunday’s early DraftKings snapshot has Vegas at -112 and Buffalo at -108 on the moneyline, leaving little separation between them. Sharpest Bets’ team grades offer a clearer defensive distinction: Vegas grades B+ on defense, compared with Buffalo’s C. The offensive grades are closer, B+ for Vegas and B for Buffalo.
Buffalo’s three straight games allowing two goals look encouraging alongside those grades, but the 7–6 Anaheim win is still part of the same recent stretch. If the Sabres cannot keep Vegas contained, they will need their scoring to carry more of the load. Vegas’ latest wins show how valuable keeping that burden small can be.
Sharpest Bets projects Vegas near 29 shots and Buffalo near 28. There is little expected volume separation, so the quality of those opportunities could matter more than a small difference in the count. The shot forecast itself does not tell us which team will get the cleaner looks.
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The goalie choices can change the picture
Hart and Buffalo’s Colten Ellis are the projected starters, but neither is confirmed. Their last five appearances produced save percentages of .895 and .890, respectively. All were starts, with Ellis’ sample including one outing of less than half a game. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, not Ellis, played in Buffalo’s latest win.
At a total of 6.5, Vegas’ three straight unders draw attention to its recent control. The season-long record is less restrained: ten of its 18 games and nine of Buffalo’s 16 have gone over their totals. Those results came against past lines, but they are a useful check on assuming either team’s recent low-scoring games will set Sunday’s tone.
The close moneyline fits a matchup in which neither recent winning run settles the argument. Buffalo’s task is to keep Vegas from getting comfortable in another low-scoring finish while sustaining the attack that broke open the Columbus game. Holding the Knights down and making them chase are different tests; the Sabres’ ability to do both is the thread to follow.
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