Minnesota’s three-game winning streak has combined an active attack with just four goals allowed. That combination puts the Islanders in a difficult spot Thursday: the Wild can threaten through Kirill Kaprizov and their power play without needing a high-scoring game to win. For bettors, the interesting tension is how to assess that favorite at a substantial price—and how much Minnesota’s recent Under results say about a lower total of 5.5.
Minnesota’s scoring threat has several contributors
Kaprizov scored his 14th goal of the season and added an assist in Tuesday’s 3-1 win at Utah. Through that game, he had scored in eight of his last nine games and recorded multiple points in three straight. His goal against the Mammoth came on the power play, as did Joel Eriksson Ek’s opener.
Eriksson Ek had eight points across his last seven games through Tuesday, and Quinn Hughes added two assists in that victory. Minnesota’s production therefore extended beyond Kaprizov, even with his scoring run providing the headline. Keeping the Wild from getting those power-play openings is a concrete task for New York: Nashville’s comeback against the Islanders also began with a power-play goal.
The Wild have won seven of their last 10 games this season, compared with five for the Islanders. DraftKings has Minnesota at -192 and New York at +160. The recent results support taking Minnesota seriously, but the favorite’s price asks a separate question from whether its attack looks dangerous.
The Islanders have offense to build on, and a lead to learn from
New York beat Nashville 4-3 in a shootout Tuesday after letting a 3-0 lead disappear. Bo Horvat, Anthony Duclair and Brayden Schenn scored in regulation; Kyle Palmieri and Horvat converted in the shootout. Matthew Schaefer’s assist on Horvat’s goal extended his point streak to five games.
That gives the Islanders more to work with than a simple underdog label suggests. Their path is to sustain that scoring involvement while protecting the advantage better than they did in Nashville. A game that becomes a special-teams exchange would test them against Minnesota’s demonstrated power-play threats.
Ilya Sorokin is the expected New York goalie after Semyon Varlamov handled Tuesday’s win. Sorokin allowed six goals on 38 shots in his latest appearance at Dallas, but only five goals across the three appearances immediately before it. Minnesota’s expected goalie, Jesper Wallstedt, has a .925 save percentage across his latest five completed appearances this season and allowed one goal in each of his last two. These are recent samples, with both starters still unconfirmed.
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Why the total’s number matters
Minnesota’s last four games stayed under their respective totals, all set at 6.5. That run captures how those games finished relative to their posted lines, rather than establishing the value of Thursday’s 5.5.
The Wild’s last three wins finished 5-1, 4-2 and 3-1, all against totals of 6.5. Their scoring was productive even as those games went Under. Today’s lower threshold leaves less room for that same combination, particularly if Minnesota’s power play keeps contributing or New York sustains its recent offense.
Wallstedt’s latest results provide a meaningful restraint on scoring, while the Islanders’ blown lead and Sorokin’s six-goal outing show why New York’s side of the equation needs attention too. Minnesota’s appeal rests on combining its scoring contributors with those stops—not on treating an Under streak as evidence of a quiet attack. That distinction helps frame both the favorite’s price and the total.
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