Derrick Henry has finished with 17 carries or fewer in every Baltimore loss this season. Two of those games stopped right at 17, so his under 17.5 carries gives you only a narrow margin in part of that history. If you’re backing Jacksonville tonight, it’s a useful workload angle to weigh alongside the Jaguars’ own passing options.
Henry’s record in Ravens losses is one starting point for these Jaguars parlay picks. On Jacksonville’s side, we look at Lawrence and Meyers in Jaguars wins. Trevor Lawrence has thrown at least two touchdown passes in four of Jacksonville’s five wins, while Jakobi Meyers has stayed below four catches in four of those five games. A productive passing night hasn’t always meant a busy one for every receiver.
Jaguars parlay picks to compare
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All appearances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry Under 17.5 carries 2026 regular season |
−117 | 100.0% 4 of 4 Ravens losses |
50.0% 4 of 8 appearances |
| Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns 2026 regular season |
−141 | 80.0% 4 of 5 Jaguars wins |
71.4% 5 of 7 appearances |
| Jakobi Meyers Under 3.5 receptions 2026 regular season |
−157 | 80.0% 4 of 5 Jaguars wins |
71.4% 5 of 7 appearances |
All three rows cover this regular season with each player’s current club. Four Baltimore losses and five Jacksonville wins are small samples, and the older comparisons are less supportive.
Derrick Henry under 17.5 carries
Henry’s recent workloads make the choice easy to understand. He carried 17 times against Cleveland, 17 against Cincinnati and 11 against Buffalo, all Ravens losses. Earlier in the season, he had 16 attempts in the loss to New Orleans. The under allows that same range, but one extra handoff would have spoiled two of those four results.
DraftKings offered −117 for fewer than 18 carries. This is a workload bet: a long Henry run can hurt Jacksonville without adding more than one attempt, while repeated short gains can threaten the under even if Baltimore isn’t running efficiently.
The under wasn’t nearly as common last season, when Henry stayed below 18 carries in four of nine Baltimore losses and six of 17 appearances overall. Henry is still Baltimore’s listed No. 1 running back. With Joe Fagnano projected to start after attempting 21 passes against Buffalo, Baltimore’s offensive setup also differs from much of the older record. That makes the recent loss pattern relevant, but hardly a promise that the Ravens will stop handing Henry the ball.
Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Lawrence threw three touchdown passes in Jacksonville’s latest win over Indianapolis. He also threw four in the preceding loss to Houston, so the scoring contribution has been there recently even when the Jaguars haven’t won.
The exception among this season’s victories came against Cincinnati: he threw one touchdown pass in Jacksonville’s 22–17 win. That’s the difference between backing the Jaguars and asking their quarterback to supply two scoring throws. A win can arrive through rushing scores or another route.
At −141, a $141 individual stake would earn $100 profit, compared with $117 for that profit on Henry’s under and $157 on Meyers’s. Last season also supplies a useful check on this year’s improvement: he reached two passing touchdowns in six of 13 Jaguars wins and eight of 17 appearances overall. This season’s four-of-five winning-game run is the reason for the option, not a long-established rate near 80%.
Jakobi Meyers under 3.5 receptions
Meyers caught two passes on three targets in Jacksonville’s latest win. He also finished with two catches against Cleveland, three against Cincinnati and two against Philadelphia in victories this season. You can expect the Jaguars to win without requiring four completions to this particular receiver.
New England was the clear counterexample: Meyers caught seven passes on eight targets in that win. He then had five catches on 10 targets in the recent Houston loss. Meyers is listed second among Jacksonville’s receivers, with no injury designation. The under still needs him to finish with three catches or fewer; a regular role doesn’t ensure a quiet night.
At −157, it is the most expensive individual selection here. The older Jacksonville record argues for restraint: he stayed below four catches in none of his eight targeted appearances in Jaguars wins last season, and in one of nine overall. His lower catch counts this season make this a current-season idea with a short record, rather than a general rule about Meyers in winning games.
Choose what you need from a Jacksonville win
Henry’s under lets you focus on Baltimore’s handoffs. Lawrence’s over asks the Jaguars to finish drives through the air; Meyers’s under asks those completions to be spread elsewhere enough to keep him below four catches. The passing options share the same offense and targets, so their separate records don’t show how often they land together or supply a combined sportsbook price. You can take the route that fits your view without using all three.
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