Jacksonville has outscored Indianapolis and Baltimore 75–17 over its last two games, but those wins looked different for the players getting the ball. Bhayshul Tuten ran for 104 yards against the Colts and 29 against the Ravens.
If you see the Jaguars winning in Nashville, Tuten’s combined yards and Brenton Strange’s receiving yards give you two ways to think about how they move the ball. Both can benefit from short throws, though one needs steady touches and the other can get there on a couple of catches.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten Over 87.5 rushing + receiving yards |
−111 | 83.3% 5 of 6 JAX wins |
62.5% 5 of 8 games |
| Brenton Strange 25+ receiving yards |
−232 | 82.4% 14 of 17 JAX wins |
75.0% 15 of 20 games |
Bhayshul Tuten · Over 87.5 rushing plus receiving yards
Against Cleveland, Tuten ran for 66 yards. One 22-yard catch brought him to 88, just enough for this line. He got to 90 against New England and 91 at Cincinnati with the same kind of split. In both games he ran for 73 and added the rest on two catches.
Then came Baltimore. Tuten had 12 carries, no catches and 29 yards in a 23-point win. Chris Rodriguez Jr. shares the backfield, and Tuten was limited Friday with ankle and foot issues after missing two practices. He carries no game designation, but a Jacksonville lead still leaves room for Rodriguez to take carries that Tuten needs.
Brenton Strange · 25+ receiving yards
Strange had 45 yards on three catches in Nashville last season and 52 in the rematch. Tennessee will be without linebackers Cody Barton and Anthony Hill Jr., so watch how the Titans cover the middle. Strange can get to 25 on a small number of targets. Against Indianapolis two weeks ago, one 46-yard catch did most of the work in a two-catch, 55-yard day.
Two catches can also leave him short. Strange finished with 22 yards at Baltimore and 23 against Cleveland, both Jacksonville wins. He reached 25 in four of six wins this season, so some of the support for this line comes from last year. At that price, it matters whether you expect a few more throws his way or are counting on a long catch.
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How do you see Jacksonville moving the ball?
Tuten fits if you expect him to stay involved as a runner and get a couple of throws out of the backfield. If you expect Rodriguez to take a bigger share, Strange’s line depends on what Jacksonville gets from its throws to the tight end. The Baltimore game is a good reason to pass on both if you think Jacksonville can build a lead without giving either player much work.
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