Utah got 76 points from Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson and Ace Bailey against Houston and still lost. The Jazz get another test against a San Antonio team that has won 11 straight, with starting center Jaxson Hayes now out.
If you see Utah pulling off the upset, start with how George gets his teammates involved and how the Jazz handle Victor Wembanyama inside. Stephon Castle’s combined line offers another way to look at the game if San Antonio’s guards have to take on more of the work.
Player props for a Jazz win
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George Over 5.5 assists |
−140 | 82.4% 14 of 17 UTA wins |
65.2% 43 of 66 games |
| Victor Wembanyama Under 39.5 points + rebounds |
−123 | 82.4% 14 of 17 SAS losses |
61.5% 48 of 78 games |
| Stephon Castle Over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists |
−110 | 85.0% 17 of 20 SAS losses |
68.3% 56 of 82 games |
Keyonte George over 5.5 assists
George had seven assists before halftime and 10 altogether in Utah’s win over New Orleans. He had a different group of finishers around him that night. More recently, he had seven assists at Houston while Peterson and Bailey combined for 49 points. If he can draw help on drives and find those two in rhythm, Utah has a way to create good shots without its usual frontcourt.
George has reached six assists in eight of 12 games this season. Most of the wins in the table come from last season, and he had only three assists in the first Spurs meeting and none in the second. The over depends on Utah turning more of his passes into shots it can finish.
Victor Wembanyama under 39.5 points + rebounds
Wembanyama had 13 rebounds in each Spurs loss this season, so Utah can give up some boards and still keep him under if it limits his scoring. He scored 12 against Oklahoma City and 25 against Houston. For Utah, the question is whether help can arrive before he gets to the rim and whether someone can still box him out when the shot goes up.
The two Jazz games show how far apart those outcomes can be. Wembanyama had 36 points and 14 rebounds in the overtime meeting in Utah, then 12 and 11 in 24 minutes in San Antonio. A tight game can keep him on the floor longer. With Hayes and Jaren Jackson Jr. out, the Jazz have fewer bigs for those minutes.
Stephon Castle over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists
Castle had 15 points, seven rebounds and five assists against Houston, reaching 27 even without a big scoring night. If Utah sends help at Wembanyama, Castle can take some of those extra shots or make the next pass. He had eight assists in the first Utah meeting, enough to take him over this line with 14 points and six rebounds.
Castle cleared the line in both Spurs losses this season and in 17 of 20 across the two-season window. In the second Utah meeting, he finished at 25 combined. Castle shares the ball with De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper, so watch who gets those extra touches when Utah makes Wembanyama give it up.
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Where could Utah swing the game?
George’s assists fit a game where the Jazz’s young scorers can turn his drives into good looks. Wembanyama’s under asks more of Utah’s depleted frontcourt. If you expect the Jazz to send early help there, Castle’s line gives you a way to follow the chances San Antonio creates elsewhere.
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