New York’s two wins this season haven’t required a big receiving day from Mason Taylor. He lost two yards on his catches against Tennessee and finished with 24 against Cleveland. If the Jets are your choice to beat Kansas City, those games give these Jets parlay picks a starting point: Taylor can be involved without piling up receiving yards.
This Side & Support Parlay Plays edition follows that Jets-win view into Taylor’s past Jets wins and Patrick Mahomes’ past Chiefs losses. Taylor’s receiving under and Mahomes’ pass-attempt over ask for different things from the offenses. We compare each with his full record over the same period so you can weigh the contribution, the price and the games that went the other way.
Both records cover 2025 and 2026 regular-season appearances with the players’ current teams. Taylor’s five Jets wins and Mahomes’ ten Chiefs losses are limited samples; each has only two of those results this season. These individual DraftKings prices were captured on November 8 and can change.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All appearances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Taylor Under 25.5 receiving yards 2025–2026 NYJ |
−108 | 80.0% 4 of 5 NYJ wins |
57.9% 11 of 19 appearances |
| Patrick Mahomes Over 31.5 pass attempts 2025–2026 KC |
−105 | 80.0% 8 of 10 KC losses |
66.7% 14 of 21 appearances |
Mason Taylor: under 25.5 receiving yards
Taylor’s Cleveland game shows how little room a receiving under can have. Three catches for 24 yards stayed below this line by just 1.5 yards. The two Jets wins this season support the idea, with four of his six appearances overall staying under. That close finish matters more than treating a two-game record as a comfortable margin.
Across the two seasons, his one miss in a Jets win came against Cincinnati in October 2025: five catches on eight targets for 34 yards. More recently, he reached 33 yards at New England and 62 against Miami, both losses, before catching three of five targets for 19 yards against Las Vegas. A modest receiving total is possible even with several chances; a longer catch can change the result quickly.
DraftKings offered the yardage under at −108, compared with −143 for under 3.5 receptions. Each stayed under in four of the same five past Jets wins and 11 of 19 appearances overall. They ask you to judge different things today. The catch under lets him gain plenty of yards on three receptions; the yardage under depends on keeping the total short, however many passes he catches.
Taylor is the expected starting tight end with Geno Smith at quarterback. He returned to full practice Thursday after being limited with a back issue Wednesday, putting him on track for his usual role. This year’s two wins are the closest comparison to that setup; the older wins came before Smith’s current Jets season. Garrett Wilson is out with a concussion, so today’s receiving opportunities may be distributed differently. If your Jets-win view depends on Taylor taking a bigger share, that works against the appeal of this under.
Patrick Mahomes: over 31.5 pass attempts
A busy Mahomes passing day can still end in a Chiefs loss. The two recent examples were very different: 33 attempts produced 165 yards at Seattle, while 41 produced 321 at Denver. Both cleared this line. That’s the attraction of looking at attempts here: you’re judging how often he throws, without also needing a particular yardage total.
The older losses keep the idea in perspective. He threw only 29 passes against Philadelphia in September 2025 and 28 against the Chargers that December. Those are the two misses in the ten-game losing record. This season, the over reached both losses but only three of his seven appearances overall.
The main over 31.5 was −105. A 30+ attempt milestone cost −180 and reached eight of ten Chiefs losses and 17 of 21 appearances overall. At 28+, the price was −333, with all ten losses and 19 of 21 appearances reaching it. The lower targets buy extra room, even when the historical loss count doesn’t change between 30 and 32. Choosing −105 means accepting the chance that Mahomes finishes on 30 or 31 throws.
Kansas City’s most recent loss also shows why attempts aren’t just a measure of chasing the score: Mahomes had the Chiefs ahead 24–13 in the third quarter before Denver came back. Backing the Jets doesn’t automatically mean he’ll reach 32 throws; he reached 47 in this season’s win over Indianapolis, too.
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Putting these Jets parlay picks to use
Taylor is the option if you see New York winning without a large receiving contribution from its tight end. Mahomes suits a view in which Kansas City keeps throwing, even if the Jets get the result. The prices are close, but the decisions are different: one asks you to contain yardage, the other to allow passing volume. Choose the part of the game you have a reason to expect; neither record gives a combined parlay probability.
Keep up with the live Jets–Chiefs matchup, or explore more choices in our NFL articles.
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