Mackie Samoskevich has recorded a point in five of the six Kraken wins he’s played in this season. That’s an interesting second-line route for Kraken parlay picks, especially at a plus-money price, but the sample is small enough that it deserves a close look.
If you’re backing Seattle against Toronto, you don’t have to ask every selection to come from the Kraken’s scoring. Auston Matthews can contribute one point and still finish under his line; Nick Paul’s under needs him to stay off the scoresheet altogether. Adam Larsson offers a different question: can Seattle win while he finishes with fewer than two shots on goal?
This Side & Support edition compares those four options around a Seattle victory. They give you different ways to approach the game, rather than a required four-leg combination.
Four player options around a Kraken win
These records use each player’s appearances with his current club. Matthews and Larsson cover last season and this season; Samoskevich and Paul have only this season’s Seattle and Toronto appearances in their samples. Samoskevich’s six Kraken wins and Paul’s seven Maple Leafs losses are particularly small comparisons. Individual DraftKings prices are snapshots and can change.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All appearances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mackie Samoskevich 1+ point |
+125 | 83.3% 5 of 6 SEA wins |
45.5% 5 of 11 appearances |
| Auston Matthews Under 1.5 points |
−195 | 87.8% 36 of 41 TOR losses |
77.0% 57 of 74 appearances |
| Adam Larsson Under 1.5 shots on goal |
−135 | 80.5% 33 of 41 SEA wins |
68.1% 64 of 94 appearances |
| Nick Paul Under 0.5 points |
−170 | 85.7% 6 of 7 TOR losses |
71.4% 10 of 14 appearances |
Mackie Samoskevich: 1+ point (+125)
Samoskevich only needs a goal or an assist. He’s in Seattle’s expected second line, and he scored in each of the Kraken’s last two wins before going without a point in the 5–1 loss to Minnesota. That gives this option some recent support from his current Seattle role, rather than relying on numbers from a previous club.
The contrast between five of six wins and five of 11 appearances is the useful part of the case—and its limitation. All five of his point-producing games in this sample came in Seattle wins. That doesn’t mean a Seattle win will bring a Samoskevich point: the Kraken beat Washington 5–3 without one on October 11.
At +125, this is the only plus-money option in the table. It asks for a direct scoring contribution from a player whose overall Seattle record is much less consistent than his record in wins. Choose it if you see him helping produce the result, rather than simply expecting Seattle’s other lines to carry the offense.
Auston Matthews: under 1.5 points (−195)
This leaves room for Matthews to make a play. One goal or one assist is still under the line; it takes two points to beat it. That makes it a different way to back Seattle from requiring Toronto’s expected first-line center to finish with nothing.
Matthews stayed below two points in 36 of the 41 Toronto losses he played in across last season and this season. The current-season comparison is six of seven losses, and his latest three point totals are zero, one and one. The latest one came in Toronto’s 5–2 defeat at Calgary.
There is still a substantial ceiling to respect. Matthews has already had two four-point games this month, and he recorded two points in Toronto’s loss at Utah. A Maple Leafs defeat doesn’t prevent him from reaching this line. The −195 price costs more than either of the other unders here, but it gives you that one-point cushion.
Adam Larsson: under 1.5 shots on goal (−135)
Larsson’s option is about shooting activity, rather than scoring or Seattle keeping Toronto quiet. He can take his regular defensive shifts and still finish with zero or one shot on goal. Missed attempts and blocked attempts don’t count toward this total.
The longer Seattle sample shows a clear difference between wins and all appearances: the under occurred in 33 of 41 wins, compared with 64 of 94 games overall. It’s also held in six of seven Kraken wins this season. His latest three shot totals are one, zero and one, including games in which he played more than 22 minutes.
The margin is narrow, though. Two shots are enough to lose, which is exactly what happened in Seattle’s win at Detroit on October 9. At −135, this is the least expensive under in the comparison, but its historical record in wins is also the lowest of the four selected records. It fits a view of Seattle finding its offense elsewhere; it isn’t a bet that Larsson will barely play.
Nick Paul: under 0.5 points (−170)
Paul’s line is stricter than Matthews’: any goal or assist beats the under. The attraction is his recent Toronto record. He’s gone without a point in four straight appearances, including the Maple Leafs’ six-, five- and seven-goal wins before their loss in Calgary. Toronto finding offense hasn’t automatically meant a Paul point.
Across his 14 appearances with the Maple Leafs this season, Paul has finished without a point ten times. Six of the seven Toronto losses fall into that group. The exception came at Vegas on October 8, when he contributed a point despite the defeat.
Paul is expected at center on Toronto’s second line, so this isn’t based on expecting him to sit out or take only a few shifts. The tradeoff is asking for no scoring contribution at all, using a short current-club sample. The −170 price offers a larger return than the Matthews under, with less room for a single successful play.
Choose the route that fits your Seattle view
Samoskevich is the more speculative scoring route, with a plus-money quote and just six Seattle wins behind the comparison. Larsson’s shot under has a longer Kraken history and the lowest minus price, while Matthews’ under allows one Toronto point. Paul’s under asks for a completely quiet scoresheet, backed by his recent run of such games.
The two Toronto unders can tell a similar offensive story, and a Seattle scorer’s point can affect more than one part of the game. Don’t treat these records as independent probabilities or multiply them into a combined success rate. If you build a same-game combination, compare the sportsbook’s actual quote for the exact selections you choose.
Follow the live Maple Leafs–Kraken matchup for the game itself, or explore more NHL betting articles.
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