The Philadelphia Flyers are still looking for their first win, yet they enter Tuesday’s matchup with the Seattle Kraken as slight favorites. That’s an interesting price against a Seattle team that has won twice in a row, scoring 11 goals along the way. Our analysis gives Philadelphia a stronger defensive evaluation, but the Flyers’ struggling attack and the recent performances of the expected goalies make this more complicated than a straightforward bounce-back spot.
A better defensive grade, but little scoring cushion
DraftKings’ moneyline has Philadelphia at -122 and Seattle at +102. The Flyers are 0-5-2, while the Kraken are 4-2-0—a sharp contrast for such a closely priced matchup.
Philadelphia’s problems have been especially clear with the puck. The Flyers have scored just once in each of their past four games, most recently losing 4-1 to Carolina on Sunday. Our grades also put their attack below Seattle’s, although neither earns a strong evaluation: Philadelphia gets a D and Seattle a D+.
The Flyers’ more promising route is keeping the game tight. We give Philadelphia a B defensively, compared with Seattle’s C. That’s a meaningful point in the Flyers’ favor, but recent goaltending offers a counterweight. Dan Vladar, Philadelphia’s expected goalie, has an .857 save percentage across his three recent appearances this season, allowing 15 goals. The Flyers need a better showing in net to make that defensive advantage count.
Seattle arrives with more encouraging recent results. The Kraken beat Detroit 6-3 on Friday, then beat Washington 5-3 on Sunday, when Jared McCann scored the go-ahead goal late in the third period. Expected Seattle goalie Joey Daccord stopped 33 shots in that win and has a .913 save percentage across four recent appearances this season. Those are small samples, but they give Seattle a stronger recent goaltending case.
The Flyers’ losing start has also translated into betting losses: backing their opponents outright in all seven games this season returned a profit of 4.74 units on flat one-unit bets. That puts the frustration in betting terms, though those returns came at earlier prices—not Tuesday’s moneyline.
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Why the 5.5-goal total needs a closer look
The scoring histories pull in opposite directions. Five of Seattle’s six games this season have gone over their posted totals, while five of Philadelphia’s seven have gone under. The Flyers’ limited scoring helps explain why their losses haven’t consistently produced high-scoring games.
Our projections call for roughly 26 shots per team, with neither side holding a shooting-volume advantage. That offers a restrained backdrop for the 5.5-goal total, especially alongside Philadelphia’s recent one-goal outings and Daccord’s stronger save percentage. The counterweight is Vladar’s difficult start and a Seattle attack that has scored at least five goals in each of its four wins. At 5.5, the tension is between Philadelphia’s limited contribution and Seattle’s recent ability to score in bunches.
What matters most
Philadelphia’s defensive evaluation gives the home favorite a credible path, but its scoring drought leaves little room for another difficult night in net. Seattle’s recent wins and Daccord’s results make the Kraken a serious challenge at a near-even moneyline. The case for Philadelphia rests on turning its better defensive evaluation into a tighter game, rather than simply being due for a win. Whether Vladar can improve on his recent results matters to both that case and the 5.5-goal total, because the Flyers haven’t been providing much scoring cushion.
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