Detroit heads to Munich on a four-game winning streak. In the latest win, the Lions scored one touchdown against Miami, and Jahmyr Gibbs got it on fourth-and-1. The Patriots, meanwhile, are coming off a 45–27 loss to Green Bay. Detroit has won three straight while scoring 20 points or fewer each time.
If you see a Lions win, start with how you expect Detroit to move the ball. Gibbs’ rushing yards and Jared Goff’s pass attempts give you two ways to evaluate a run-heavy game. Sam LaPorta’s catch count shifts the focus to what Detroit can do on shorter throws.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs 80+ rushing yards |
−174 | 83.3% 5 of 6 DET wins |
62.5% 5 of 8 games |
| Jared Goff Under 34.5 pass attempts |
−102 | 83.3% 5 of 6 DET wins |
62.5% 5 of 8 games |
| Sam LaPorta 3+ receptions |
−431 | 91.7% 11 of 12 DET wins |
94.1% 16 of 17 games |
Jahmyr Gibbs · 80+ rushing yards
Detroit made Gibbs its clear lead back this season, and he’s taken at least 20 carries in each of the Lions’ six wins. The Miami game shows where the line can get tight. Gibbs got his usual workload, including the fourth-down touchdown run, but finished with 74 yards on 20 carries. He had room to spare a week earlier, when he ran for 153 against Minnesota.
New England’s run defense has held up better than its pass defense, so the question is whether Detroit sticks with the ground game when the early gains are modest. Gibbs reached 70 yards in all six wins. The 80-yard line costs less and gives up the cushion that mattered in Miami.
Jared Goff · Under 34.5 pass attempts
Goff needed only 25 throws in each of the wins over Minnesota and Miami. That’s the version of Detroit that fits this under. The defense keeps things close or protects a lead, and the offense can go another series without chasing yards through the air. It also matters that the line counts attempts. Goff threw for 303 yards against Green Bay in October and still stayed under with 32 throws.
Detroit’s lone win that went over was the opener against New Orleans. Gibbs ran for 156 yards that day, and Goff still threw 39 times in an overtime win. If New England keeps answering Detroit’s scores, the extra drives can put the under in trouble even when Gibbs is having a good day.
Sam LaPorta · 3+ receptions
LaPorta caught four passes against Miami with a long of 11 yards, so he cleared three on short gains even as Goff’s attempts stayed low. That’s the appeal if you expect Detroit to lean on the run and use its tight end to keep drives moving. Green Bay held LaPorta to one catch in a Lions win, though, and five of his 11 hits in Detroit wins landed on exactly three.
LaPorta has cleared three catches about as often across all his appearances as he has in Detroit wins. You’re paying a steep price for a modest catch total that fits more than one game script. Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with a rib injury. Check the lineup at kickoff instead of assuming his targets would automatically go to LaPorta.
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How do you see Detroit winning?
If your read is that Detroit gets ahead and can keep handing the ball to Gibbs, start by comparing his rushing line with how often you expect Goff to throw. The two can fit the same game, but the Saints opener shows how easily their results can split. LaPorta makes more sense if you have a view on the short passing game and can live with the price.
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