William Nylander scored twice without an assist when Toronto beat Edmonton. If you’re backing the Leafs against Minnesota, compare how often he got a point or an assist in Toronto wins. For Matt Boldy, look at how often he went without an assist in Minnesota losses, even when he scored.
Player props to compare for a Maple Leafs win
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander Over 0.5 points |
−200 | 87.5% 7 of 8 Toronto wins |
60.0% 12 of 20 appearances |
| Matt Boldy Under 0.5 assists |
−115 | 85.7% 6 of 7 Minnesota losses |
50.0% 10 of 20 appearances |
William Nylander: Over 0.5 points
Nylander recorded a point in seven of eight Toronto wins. DraftKings had the point at −200 and over 0.5 assists at +100. The assist line hit in six wins and eight of 20 appearances, compared with 12 of 20 for the point. The Edmonton game accounts for the difference in the win sample.
Neither line would have landed in Toronto’s win over the Islanders, and Nylander hasn’t recorded a point in his last two games, against New Jersey and Colorado. Across this season and last, including the playoffs, he recorded a point in 26 of 33 Toronto wins. If you see him setting up chances, the assist price is the more specific option. The point over pays less, but it also covers a goal.
Matt Boldy: Under 0.5 assists
Boldy went without an assist in six of seven Minnesota losses this season. He scored against the Islanders without setting up a goal, which is exactly the kind of game the −115 assist under can cover. The Edmonton loss shows the other side: he had two assists without scoring.
He’s also picked up an assist in each of Minnesota’s last three wins, against Philadelphia, San Jose and Montreal. Across this season and last, including the playoffs, he went without an assist in 33 of 47 Wild losses. If you expect his projected line with Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek to create plenty of chances, the under can miss even if Toronto wins.
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Which route fits a Toronto win?
Nylander’s point is the more direct fit if you see him involved in Toronto’s scoring. Boldy’s under makes sense only if you expect Minnesota to get less from him as a passer. The table gives you the price and record for each prop.
See the live Wild–Maple Leafs matchup for lines and game odds, or browse more NHL articles.
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