Toronto has scored 21 goals during a four-game winning streak. Calgary has allowed just four during three straight wins. That sets up an interesting test Monday: can the Flames keep Toronto’s scoring surge in check? The Maple Leafs are road favorites, but the biggest wrinkle is in Calgary’s crease, where expected starter Dustin Wolf’s recent results look very different from the team’s winning run.
Calgary’s streak needs a closer look
Toronto beat Edmonton 7-2 on Saturday, while Calgary handled Detroit 4-1. Across their last 10 games, the Leafs are 6-4 and the Flames are 4-6. Both have picked up momentum lately, but neither has been consistently strong throughout that stretch.
Calgary’s recent success came with Devin Cooley in net. He stopped 100 of 104 shots across those three wins, capped by Saturday’s victory over Detroit. Dustin Wolf is expected to start Monday. In his five most recent appearances for Calgary this season, he posted an .834 save percentage and allowed at least four goals four times.
That distinction matters when weighing the Flames’ momentum. Their three-game run shows they’ve found a way to win while limiting opponents’ scoring, but it doesn’t establish that Wolf has turned the same corner.
What Toronto’s favorite price asks you to weigh
DraftKings makes Toronto a -162 favorite, with Calgary at +136. The Leafs’ recent scoring gives that favorite status some support, as does our assessment of the attacks: we grade Toronto’s offense B- and Calgary’s D-. Still, our shot projections don’t point to Toronto monopolizing the shooting. We project roughly 27 shots for the Leafs and 28 for the Flames.
Calgary’s path is therefore more plausible than its offensive grade alone might suggest: generate its share of shots and get a better performance from Wolf. Toronto also has a goaltending concern. Expected starter Sergei Bobrovsky has an .888 save percentage across his five most recent appearances for the Leafs this season, including four goals allowed on 25 shots against the Rangers in his latest outing.
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The 6.5-goal total has competing signals
Toronto games have gone over their posted totals in eight of 13 games this season; Calgary games have gone under in six of 10, including all three wins in its current streak. At 6.5, the contrast is worth digging into: Toronto’s scoring surge and Wolf’s recent struggles raise the scoring concern, while Calgary’s weaker offensive assessment offers a counterweight.
Bobrovsky’s recent numbers also leave room for Calgary to contribute, even without the stronger attack. The Flames’ run of low-scoring wins matters, but Cooley’s role in that stretch makes it harder to carry the same expectations into a game Wolf is expected to start.
Toronto brings the stronger recent scoring case, but the fairly even shot projections and Bobrovsky’s recent results complicate the favorite’s price. Calgary’s upset case rests on turning its expected shooting volume into production while getting more from Wolf than his five-game sample shows. That makes the change in Calgary’s crease—not just the length of either winning streak—the key consideration for both the moneyline and the 6.5-goal total.
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