Toronto and Edmonton both bring three-game winning streaks into Saturday’s matchup, but they aren’t being priced like equals. The DraftKings moneyline has Edmonton favored at -180 and Toronto at +150. Our stronger assessment of Edmonton’s attack gives that gap some support; Toronto’s 14 goals across its last three games make the challenge more interesting. Can the Leafs keep trading goals with the Oilers, or will Edmonton’s edge in shooting volume separate these teams?
Edmonton has the stronger case—but Toronto brings scoring
The Oilers have won eight of their last 10 games, including Thursday’s 6-5 win over Carolina. Toronto has won five of its last 10, though its latest stretch looks much better: wins over San Jose, Columbus and the Rangers, with at least three goals in each.
Toronto needed a Troy Stecher goal with 26.3 seconds remaining to finish Thursday’s 5-4 win over New York. Easton Cowan and Kirill Marchenko also scored. That gives Toronto something tangible to build on beyond the familiar names of Auston Matthews and William Nylander, although allowing four goals kept that game tight until the end.
We rate Edmonton’s attack A- compared with Toronto’s B-. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl skate together on the Oilers’ first line, while Matthews and Nylander give Toronto scoring threats across its top two lines. Our shots-on-goal projections also give Edmonton a modest advantage, at about 29 to Toronto’s 26. That suggests more shooting opportunities for Edmonton, without establishing an edge in chance quality.
The betting history adds a useful price distinction: flat one-unit moneyline bets on Edmonton returned a profit of 4.18 units across 10 games this season, with eight wins. That’s a strong start, but those returns came at the prices available for those games. Today’s -180 still deserves its own assessment.
The 6.5 total turns attention to the goalies
Recent results give the scoring outlook some substance. Seven of Toronto’s last 10 games went over their posted totals, as did six of Edmonton’s last 10. Both teams have also shown how wins can come with goals allowed: Toronto conceded four on Thursday, and Edmonton conceded five.
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Tristan Jarry’s recent appearances supply the main counterweight to simply expecting another shootout. He allowed two goals against Utah and one against San Jose in his two most recent outings. Across his last three appearances, though, a six-goal game against Vancouver leaves him with an .873 save percentage. The latest two outings are encouraging, but the three-game picture is still mixed.
If Sergei Bobrovsky starts for Toronto, his recent results offer another reason to take Edmonton’s attack seriously. He has an .888 save percentage across his last five appearances, including four goals allowed on 25 shots against the Rangers. He also stopped 30 of 31 against San Jose earlier in that stretch, so there’s meaningful variation within those five games.
At a total of 6.5, the scoring case rests on productive recent attacks and uneven goaltending—not an overwhelming projected shot count. Jarry’s last two performances are the clearest reason that recent high-scoring results might not carry over.
What matters most
Edmonton’s stronger attack, modest shooting edge and better results across the last 10 give its favorite status a solid foundation. Toronto’s recent scoring is the strongest challenge to that case, especially because we give both teams a B- defensive grade. That makes Jarry’s recent improvement particularly important: another steady outing would help Edmonton make its attacking advantage count, while a game closer to Thursday’s loose defensive performances would leave Toronto more room to keep pace. The distinction for bettors is between a convincing case for favoritism and enough separation to justify the -180 price.
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