Memphis has opened with two wins and a scoring surge from Ty Jerome, but its trip to Sacramento brings a different challenge: facing Domantas Sabonis without Zach Edey. The Kings are winless, yet Sabonis and rookie Darius Acuff Jr. just showed how dangerous they can be together. That makes this more interesting than a simple matchup between a 2-0 team and an 0-2 team—especially with the Grizzlies favored by 4.5 points.
Jerome’s scoring gives Memphis a strong starting point
Jerome scored 45 points in Memphis’ season-opening win over Utah, then added 28 as the Grizzlies rallied past Golden State 111-108 on Friday. Cameron Boozer supplied 25 points and 13 rebounds, including the go-ahead jumper with 20 seconds left. Memphis erased a 12-point deficit over the final 3:47, an impressive escape that also shows how close its unbeaten start came to ending.
Our projections give the Grizzlies a useful advantage from long range: roughly 14 made threes, compared with about 11 for Sacramento. That’s a meaningful part of Memphis’ case as a road favorite, alongside Jerome’s hot start. Our grades also favor the Grizzlies’ attack, a C compared with Sacramento’s D+, though neither team earns a strong defensive assessment.
Sabonis makes the missing center matter
Edey has been ruled out with left ankle injury management. Memphis also has Cedric Coward questionable with a wrist injury, while Sacramento’s Keegan Murray is questionable with left ankle capsulitis.
Edey’s absence is especially relevant after Sabonis put up 27 points, 19 rebounds and 10 assists in Sacramento’s 128-120 loss to Portland on Friday. Acuff scored 33 and Zach LaVine added 22. The Kings generated plenty of scoring, but Portland flipped the game with a 15-0 run to start the third quarter.
Sacramento’s clearest response to Memphis is another productive night from that trio. Still, our rebound projections are nearly even at about 44 per team. Sabonis’ huge individual performance against Portland doesn’t automatically translate into a team-wide advantage on the glass here.
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How the matchup fits a 236.5 total
The defensive concerns help explain the sportsbook total of 236.5: we grade Memphis’ defense a D and Sacramento’s a D+. Jerome’s start, the Grizzlies’ projected three-point production and Sacramento’s scoring against Portland all give the game routes to a high-scoring night.
There’s a counterweight, though. Both Memphis games this season finished under their posted totals, and Sacramento scored just 96 in its opener before reaching 120 against Portland. Two games are only an opening glimpse, but they show why Friday’s Kings performance shouldn’t become the automatic expectation. At 236.5, Sacramento’s ability to sustain that improved scoring matters alongside the weaknesses we see defensively.
The case is stronger than the records alone
Memphis brings the better early results, a hotter lead scorer and a projected edge in made threes. Sacramento brings a productive Sabonis and a credible scoring response through Acuff and LaVine. The Grizzlies’ clearest route to separation is their perimeter production; the main counterweight is a Kings offense that just scored 120, now facing Memphis without Edey. With little projected difference in team rebounding, the stronger case for Memphis rests on that shooting advantage rather than an assumed edge inside. For the total, the weak defensive grades make sense of the scoring potential, but Sacramento’s uneven opening games leave its offensive consistency as the biggest question.
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