When Memphis sent two defenders at Jamal Murray, it left Cameron Johnson open on the perimeter. If New Orleans makes the same choice, those looks could be a big part of a Denver win.
If you’re backing the Nuggets, Johnson’s threes and DeMar DeRozan’s assists give you two ways to look at Denver’s offense, with Murray on the floor or the bench taking over. Zion Williamson’s rebounds under is a different angle if you expect Denver to finish its stops on the glass.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Johnson Over 1.5 made threes |
−172 | 100.0% 4 of 4 Denver wins |
71.4% 5 of 7 Denver games |
| DeMar DeRozan Over 2.5 assists |
−111 | 100.0% 5 of 5 Denver wins |
55.6% 5 of 9 Denver games |
| Zion Williamson Under 5.5 rebounds |
−110 | 87.5% 7 of 8 New Orleans losses |
66.7% 8 of 12 New Orleans games |
Cameron Johnson over 1.5 made threes
Johnson made four threes at Memphis, including a late look when the Grizzlies trapped Murray in the pick-and-roll. He also hit two in Monday’s loss at Houston, so he can reach the line even when Denver’s offense has a tougher night. He missed both October meetings with New Orleans, which makes the last two games a better guide to his minutes and shot opportunities than those head-to-heads.
Johnson landed on exactly two in half his Denver wins this season. The three-make alternate offered plus money, but it would have removed two of the four hits. If the Pelicans stay attached to him and make Murray finish possessions himself, that extra make gets hard to count on.
DeMar DeRozan over 2.5 assists
DeRozan handed out five assists off the bench in New Orleans in October and added four in 20 minutes at Memphis on Wednesday. If a second defender steps toward him in the midrange, he can use that attention to find a cutter or a shooter. In Houston he played almost as many minutes and finished with two assists, so the chances he creates matter as much as how long he plays.
DeRozan has reached three assists in every Denver win he’s played this season. He’s still working with a bench role, and the first meeting with the Pelicans went to overtime and landed right on three. The line fits if you expect Denver to give him the ball to create for the second unit.
Zion Williamson under 5.5 rebounds
Williamson scored 25 with five rebounds in the most recent Denver meeting, then scored 22 with five rebounds against Memphis on Friday. Saddiq Bey and DeAndre Jordan grabbed 18 boards between them on Friday. With a center alongside him, Williamson can do much of his work as a scorer while teammates gather the misses.
Three of his seven hits in losses this season landed right on five. He also collected eight boards in the loss to Minnesota, seven on the defensive end. Last season, this under hit in 19 of his 40 appearances in New Orleans losses, so the case here rests on his current role. If New Orleans needs Williamson to clean up more misses because its frontcourt rotation changes on the back-to-back, that’s a reason to reconsider the under.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Nuggets vs. Pelicans picks.
See our model's picks for this game, plus the projections and trends behind them. Use PARLAY20 for 20% off Premium Monthly. New members who qualify get 3 days free.
Which prop fits a Denver win?
Johnson fits if you think Denver will make the Pelicans pay for helping on Murray. Choose DeRozan’s assists if you see the second unit creating its own shots. I’d wait on Williamson’s rebounds until New Orleans’s frontcourt rotation is clearer.
Follow the live Nuggets–Pelicans matchup or browse our latest NBA articles.
More picks to build around
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.