New Orleans gave up 18 three-pointers to Memphis on Friday. Denver’s last win turned on Nikola Jokic finding Cameron Johnson for a late three. That’s the question carrying into this matchup: can the Pelicans keep Denver’s passing from turning another defensive breakdown into a runaway, or will they need their own offense to keep rescuing possessions?
Denver has more than one way to finish
Jamal Murray scored 17 of his 30 points in the fourth quarter of Denver’s 123-118 win at Memphis. Jokic supplied 27 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists, while Johnson scored 23. When Memphis cut the lead to two with 2:42 left, Johnson scored Denver’s next five points, including that three off Jokic’s pass.
That sequence gives New Orleans two problems to solve. Murray can carry the scoring late, but sending more attention toward Denver’s main creators can leave Johnson with the next shot. The Nuggets didn’t make that win comfortable, though: they led by 18 early in the second quarter and still faced a potential tying three in the final seconds. Building a lead and protecting a large spread aren’t necessarily the same assignment.
New Orleans needs stops, not just a scoring response
Saddiq Bey scored 30 points and Zion Williamson added 22 in the Pelicans’ 142-111 loss to Memphis. Neither performance could offset the perimeter gap: Memphis shot 18 of 45 from three, while New Orleans went 7 of 31. The Grizzlies scored at least 35 points in every quarter, so this wasn’t just one burst that got away.
The Pelicans have now lost five straight games and failed to cover in all five. Their last four opponents scored 139, 138, 145 and 142 points. New Orleans is also trying to end a three-game home skid. A competitive response starts with making Denver work through a full possession rather than letting one rotation mistake become an open three.
There is an offensive route back into the game. Bey’s shooting and Williamson’s scoring gave New Orleans production against Memphis; better perimeter conversion around them would make Denver defend more than the initial attack. But the Pelicans return on the second night of a back-to-back, while Denver hasn’t played since Wednesday. They need that response without another night of chasing the ball around the arc.
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What the spread asks of Denver
DraftKings lists Denver as a 12.5-point favorite. The case for laying that number starts with repeatable ball movement against a defense that has struggled across several opponents, not just Friday’s lopsided result. We project 14.7 made threes and 29.7 assists for Denver, compared with 11.3 and 26.4 for New Orleans. Those are projections, but they identify the mechanism to watch: whether Denver keeps finding the extra pass before the Pelicans recover.
The price becomes harder to justify if Denver again lets an early advantage shrink. The Nuggets have already beaten New Orleans twice this season, but the wins looked very different: 141-135 and 104-91. Only the second margin would clear this spread. For the underdog’s points to become attractive, New Orleans needs both cleaner perimeter coverage and enough scoring to keep Denver’s starters engaged late. A big cushion alone isn’t much protection if the same defensive mistakes keep repeating.
The total depends on what New Orleans contributes
The total is 235.5. New Orleans’ last two games finished with 253 and 256 points, even though the Pelicans scored 111 in each. That explains the high-scoring route here: Denver doesn’t need New Orleans to shoot brilliantly if its own offense keeps getting clean looks. The Pelicans’ games have gone over in nine of 13 games this season, another sign that their defensive problems have mattered to this market.
But poor defense doesn’t automatically carry every game over this threshold. The teams’ two earlier meetings produced 276 and 195 points, and Denver’s 10 games this season have split evenly between overs and unders. An over needs sustained scoring, whether that’s Denver’s perimeter execution or a stronger Pelicans response. Passing on it makes sense if the argument rests only on Friday’s score. The under’s route is New Orleans slowing Denver’s clean looks without replacing those lost points with a much better shooting night of its own.
Watch the pass after the first stop
Watch what happens after New Orleans initially contains Murray or Jokic: does the next pass still find an uncovered shooter? At the other end, look for whether Bey and Williamson get enough help to keep the game competitive. Visit the NBA betting board to compare this large spread and scoring threshold with the rest of the slate as prices change.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
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