Edmonton brings the more imposing attack, but the Islanders are giving it something to answer. New York has scored four goals in consecutive wins, most recently with Matthew Schaefer supplying two goals and an assist against Minnesota. Saturday’s matchup asks whether that scoring lift can hold up against an Oilers team coming off a Tristan Jarry shutout—and whether it’s enough to challenge Edmonton’s favorite status.
McDavid sets a demanding standard
The Oilers are 9-2-2 and have won seven of their last 10 games. Their 4-0 win over Calgary on Wednesday ended a two-game losing streak, with Connor McDavid adding two points and extending his season-opening points streak to 13 games. He reached 36 points through those 13 games. That sustained production is a much stronger foundation than a single good offensive night.
McDavid features on Edmonton’s first line with Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin. The latest win also brought goals from Mattias Ekholm and Kasperi Kapanen, giving the Oilers contributions beyond McDavid’s own scoring. Our attacking grade is A- for Edmonton against D for New York, a substantial contrast even with the Islanders’ recent improvement.
DraftKings has Edmonton at -135 on the moneyline and New York at +114. The Oilers have the better record and higher-rated attack, but the Islanders’ response matters at that price. New York is 7-4-2, has won six of its last 10 and has just put together back-to-back 4-3 wins. This is a more competitive recent picture than the offensive grades alone suggest.
The Islanders are finding goals beyond their forwards
Schaefer scored twice in Thursday’s overtime win at Minnesota, including the winner 33 seconds into the extra period. Bo Horvat added a power-play goal and Adam Pelech also scored. Three of New York’s four goals came from defensemen. That spread of contributors helps explain how the Islanders produced enough offense even though Horvat was their only forward to score.
The win also came with a warning: Minnesota tied the game with 3:53 left in regulation. New York has allowed three goals in each of its last two wins and six in the loss before them. It has found enough scoring to win twice, but keeping Edmonton within reach could require more help at the other end.
Ilya Sorokin has stopped 121 of 135 shots across his last five appearances for a .896 save percentage, including six goals allowed against Dallas and three against Minnesota. Jarry stopped all 24 Calgary shots for Edmonton. He also allowed three goals on 28 shots in his preceding appearance against Detroit, so the latest shutout is encouraging without establishing an automatic repeat.
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The 6.5 total has competing pressures
The Islanders’ last three games have all gone Over, a recent shift within a season in which seven of their 13 games have finished Under. Edmonton’s games have gone Over eight times in 13. Those different season patterns make it worth looking past the latest streak when assessing the 6.5 total.
Edmonton’s sustained attacking production and Sorokin’s recent results give the higher-scoring case substance. New York’s four-goal performances provide a second source of scoring, particularly if its defensemen continue contributing. Jarry’s shutout and the Islanders’ more restrained full-season totals record provide the counterweight. Our projections put the shooting volume fairly close, at about 29 shots for Edmonton and 28 for New York, so the attacking-grade gap doesn’t come with a large projected shot-count gap.
Edmonton has the firmer offensive foundation, led by McDavid’s production across every game so far. The Islanders’ strongest reply is their broader recent scoring, but allowing three or more again would make that a demanding way to beat this opponent. That balance—New York’s scoring lift against its recent goals conceded—is the key to judging both the underdog case and the total.
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