Indiana’s shooting gave Milwaukee plenty to think about Sunday night. The Pacers hit 21 threes in a 136-109 win over Brooklyn, then headed into a back-to-back with a concern at center. They’re 4.5-point favorites against the winless Bucks, but the useful question is how much of that offensive spark travels—and whether Milwaukee can answer from outside.
A big night, followed by a meaningful ankle concern
Tyrese Haliburton finished Sunday with 24 points and 10 assists, while Pascal Siakam added 21 points. Indiana shot 49-for-85 overall and 21-for-43 from three. That’s a strong example of what the Pacers’ attack can produce when the shots fall, though Friday’s 121-105 loss to Dallas is a reminder that their first three games haven’t all looked alike.
The more immediate concern is Ivica Zubac’s left ankle. He left the Brooklyn game after spraining it. Scott Agness of FieldhouseFiles.com reported that coach Rick Carlisle said X-rays were negative, but swelling made Zubac unlikely to play Monday in Milwaukee. He’s day-to-day, rather than ruled out. That puts an important personnel question alongside the short turnaround, which Indiana’s team preview also highlights.
Indiana’s 2-1 start offers the stronger results-based case in this matchup. Still, covering on the road asks for more than simply carrying Sunday’s confidence into another arena. The Pacers have to produce another effective offensive night with little time between games and Zubac’s availability in doubt.
Milwaukee’s outside shooting is a real counterweight
The Bucks are 0-3, but scoring hasn’t disappeared: they’ve put up 116, 125 and 116 points. Their first three results show the bigger problem: allowing 128, 132 and 127. Getting stops is the clearest obstacle to their first win, especially against a team coming off Indiana’s shooting performance.
Milwaukee does have a plausible way to keep pressure on the favorite. Our three-point projections call for about 16 makes from the Bucks, compared with 14 for Indiana. That gives Milwaukee a potential scoring counterweight rather than leaving the matchup entirely dependent on cooling off the Pacers. It also suggests Indiana shouldn’t count on repeating Sunday’s enormous advantage from beyond the arc.
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What matters at the posted total
The latest DraftKings total of 240.5 has a clear backdrop in Milwaukee’s early defensive results and Indiana’s recent outburst. All three Bucks games this season have gone over their respective totals. That’s an active scoring environment, though only three games into the season.
The counterweight is how much shooting those results can ask teams to sustain. Indiana’s 21-for-43 night was particularly productive, while its 105-point performance against Dallas came just one game earlier. Our three-point projections leave room for both teams to contribute from outside, but the Pacers’ back-to-back and Zubac’s ankle concern make simply carrying Sunday’s production forward too easy an assumption. At 240.5, Milwaukee’s defensive struggles matter, but so does the risk of treating Indiana’s best shooting night as its usual output.
Indiana brings the stronger recent offensive showing, but Milwaukee’s projected perimeter production gives the Bucks a credible way to stay close. The more demanding part of their response is getting stops: they’ve allowed at least 127 points in every game so far. For the spread, that makes Milwaukee’s ability to slow Indiana more important than its winless record alone; for the total, Indiana’s shooting variability and short turnaround temper the high-scoring backdrop.
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