Andrew Nembhard found two very different ways to score in Indiana’s wins this season: 18 points without a three against New Orleans, then 14 with four threes against Brooklyn. Both got him past 12. If you’re backing the Pacers at Miami, that lower line gives you more than one scoring route to consider.
Nembhard and Pascal Siakam offer two Indiana scoring options, while Tim Hardaway Jr.’s under lets you look at Miami’s bench from the other side. These are individual choices to compare around a Pacers win, rather than a prediction that Indiana will get it done.
Pacers parlay picks: three scoring options
The records cover last season and this season with each player’s current club, including the playoffs. Siakam and Nembhard are shown in Pacers wins; Hardaway in Miami losses. The overall records use the same periods. Hardaway’s Miami sample is just five games.
| Player prop | Price | In the selected result | All club appearances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam 20+ points |
−254 | 94.7% 18 of 19 Indiana wins |
80.6% 54 of 67 appearances |
| Andrew Nembhard 12+ points |
−437 | 100.0% 15 of 15 Indiana wins |
80.3% 49 of 61 appearances |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. Under 8.5 points |
−103 | 100.0% 4 of 4 Miami losses |
80.0% 4 of 5 appearances |
Pascal Siakam: 20+ points at −254
Siakam has reached 20 in 18 of the 19 Indiana wins in this history, a stronger record than across his Pacers games overall. That fits the Indiana-win idea, though there are only 19 wins behind the comparison.
He’s also cleared 20 in all five games this season: 30, 23, 21, 20 and 26. The two wins brought 30 and 21. He’s started every game, taken 13–23 shots and played 26–37 minutes, with a 32.2-minute average close to his older 33.2.
Some of those hits have been tighter than others. He landed on 20 against Milwaukee, then scored 26 on 11-of-17 shooting against Philadelphia without making a three. His previous Miami totals were 33, 11 and 30; the 11 in 26 minutes is a good reason not to dismiss the matchup risk.
Eighteen points at −395 had the same 18 hits in 19 Indiana wins, but four more overall: 58 of 67. Twenty at −254 pays more while taking away two points of room. The identical winning-game record doesn’t make that extra requirement free.
Andrew Nembhard: 12+ points at −437
Nembhard reached 12 in all 15 Indiana wins in this sample, compared with 49 of 61 appearances overall. It’s a useful record to build on, provided you keep the small number of wins in perspective.
He’s started all four of his games this season and scored 18, 16, 14 and 18 in 30–35 minutes. His average is up to 32.8 minutes from 31.3 in the older games. Both wins cleared 12, although the 14 against Brooklyn left only two points to spare.
The interesting part is how he got there. Six free throws helped him score 18 without a three against New Orleans; against Brooklyn, four threes supplied most of his 14. Most recently, seven free throws helped him reach 18 against Philadelphia despite five-of-16 shooting.
Ten points was −830 and also covered all 15 Indiana wins, with 51 hits in 61 appearances overall. Twelve at −437 asks for two more points at a lighter price. His three earlier Miami totals—15, 29 and 15—cleared both lines, though they don’t tell us how much he’ll play this time.
Nembhard is listed as probable with a neck issue, so his final status and likely minutes matter before you choose this one. The lineup was still unconfirmed in Friday’s report.
Tim Hardaway Jr.: under 8.5 points at −103
Hardaway’s under has fit Miami’s losses so far: three, eight, five and five points. His other Miami game was the opposite story—14 in the win over Atlanta. That’s only five games, so you’re leaning on a very short club record.
He’s been a reserve in all five, with 16–22 minutes and 5–10 shots a game. The low totals weren’t simply cameo appearances: he played 21 minutes in both the eight-point Detroit game and the five-point Charlotte game.
Shooting made the difference. Hardaway went two of seven against Detroit and one of six against Charlotte, then six of ten in 22 minutes against Atlanta. Only two of those Atlanta baskets were threes; four were twos. He didn’t need a huge change in minutes—or a barrage from deep—to beat this line.
Under 8.5 at −103 needs eight points or fewer. Detroit stopped right on eight, and his latest 14 shows what a better shooting night can do. It’s the lightest price of these three choices, with the shortest Miami history behind it.
Choosing your Pacers parlay picks
Siakam has the longer current run at his scoring line. Nembhard gives you a lower number to chase, but settle his neck status and workload first. If you’d rather take the Miami under, weigh Hardaway’s lighter price against what his latest shooting night did to it.
Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac. Keep that changed rotation in mind when using the older Pacers records, without assuming it hands extra points to either scorer.
Choose the route that fits your Indiana view, rather than automatically taking all three. Their separate records don’t establish a combined chance of winning or a parlay price. Follow the live Pacers–Heat matchup, or explore more NBA parlay ideas.
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