Philadelphia will have to find a way without Jalen Hurts this week. The Eagles ruled Hurts out for Sunday against Carolina because of a superficial blood clot in his calf. Tanner McKee is in line to take over, and he’s got a tough job ahead. Carolina comes in rested after a big game from Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan, though the Panthers still have to deal with a good Philadelphia defense.
DraftKings had Carolina favored by 3.5 points with a total of 38.5 as of 1:54 p.m. EDT on October 15. Our updated projections give Philadelphia a small edge in total yards. Can the Eagles slow down Carolina’s passing game and get enough from McKee to turn that into a win?
Young and McMillan gave Carolina plenty to like
The Panthers beat Detroit 32-26 before their bye, with Young throwing for 329 yards and two touchdowns. McMillan caught both scores and finished with 14 receptions for 192 yards, while Chuba Hubbard added 122 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Hubbard gave Detroit plenty to worry about on the ground, too.
The catch is that Carolina’s recent results have been all over the place. The Panthers scored 34 against Atlanta and 32 against Detroit, but managed 18 in a loss at Cleveland. They also scored 37 and still lost 59-37 to Chicago. At 2-2, the Panthers have shown they can put up points. Getting enough stops has been another story.
Our updated team projections put Carolina at roughly 280 total yards in Philadelphia, including about 180 passing yards. That’s well below what Young put up against Detroit. We give the Eagles’ defense an A and Carolina’s offense a C+, so we’re expecting a tougher afternoon for the Panthers’ passing game.
What can the Eagles get from McKee?
McKee is expected to start, with NFL.com noting he’s next on the depth chart after Andy Dalton’s release. He’s taking over an offense that was already having trouble scoring.
The Eagles lost 19-17 to Jacksonville in London on Sunday on a field goal as time expired. Hurts finished with 220 passing yards and a touchdown, and Philadelphia played without Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith. It was a close one, but the Eagles have scored just 7, 20 and 17 points during this three-game skid.
With McKee at quarterback, we give Philadelphia’s offense a C-, compared with a C+ for Carolina’s defense. We project about 300 total yards for the Eagles, including 190 through the air and 110 on the ground. Carolina comes in at about 100 rushing yards, so there isn’t much separating the two ground games. Philadelphia can still move the ball, but we don’t see the same offensive advantage it had with Hurts.
Getting some help back would make McKee’s job easier. Barkley missed Wednesday’s practice with a hamstring injury, and Smith sat out with hamstring/toe issues. We’re still waiting to see whether either can play Sunday. Both are worth watching as McKee gets ready to take over.
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How does this look at 38.5?
At DraftKings’ total of 38.5, it’s easy to see why scoring is a question. We expect Carolina’s passing game to have a tougher time against Philadelphia’s A-rated defense. On the other side, the Eagles have struggled to score, now have a C- offensive grade and don’t have a big projected rushing edge to lean on.
Still, Jacksonville threw for 331 yards against the Eagles on Sunday. Young has something to work with if Philadelphia gives him those kinds of openings. And Carolina’s defense gave up 59 points to Chicago. There are ways for this game to open up, even with our lower yardage expectations.
Three of Philadelphia’s five recent games this season went over their posted totals, while Carolina’s four split evenly. That’s useful background, but those games came with different opponents and numbers. At 38.5, we’re weighing the quieter offensive outlook against what both defenses have allowed through the air. Hurts being out doesn’t settle the total on its own.
Carolina has the week off and the big Detroit performance to build on. Philadelphia has its defense, but needs McKee to keep drives going and could use Barkley or Smith back alongside him. Hurts being out makes the Panthers easier to like, though laying 3.5 still asks them to do more than just win. We’d keep the price and those remaining injury updates in mind: Carolina still has to show that Young and McMillan can get enough done against this defense.
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