Miami finally found a winning combination last Sunday: Malik Willis made plays through the air and on the ground, and Ollie Gordon rushed for 103 yards. New England now arrives as a seven-point favorite, carrying a stronger passing outlook but fresh practice concerns around A.J. Brown. The Dolphins’ first win gives them a more convincing response than their 1-5 record alone suggests; the test is whether they can repeat that offensive balance while slowing Drake Maye.
Miami gave itself a lead worth protecting
Willis threw for 208 yards and two touchdowns, both to Caleb Douglas, and rushed for 37 yards and another score in the Dolphins’ 28-25 win over the Jets. Miami scored touchdowns on its first two possessions and led 21-7 at halftime. Gordon added a rushing touchdown.
The Dolphins also found a big play when New York threatened. Douglas turned a short pass into a 63-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter, and Willis later converted fourth-and-1 with a two-yard run to prevent another Jets possession. Those were concrete ways Miami kept a strong start from slipping away.
The defense still gave up plenty. Geno Smith threw for 287 yards and three touchdowns, while Braelon Allen rushed for 104 yards. Miami intercepted Smith at its own 21 and forced a field goal after the Jets reached the 1, but New York also missed a field goal. The first win contained important stops alongside problems that Maye will have a chance to challenge.
Maye’s production keeps New England’s case strong
Maye completed 24 of 31 passes for 321 yards and two touchdowns in New England’s 30-24 loss at Chicago last Thursday. He also ran for a touchdown, and Rhamondre Stevenson caught five passes for 93 yards and a score. An end-zone interception late in the second quarter interrupted that productive night.
That mistake mattered in a six-point loss, but it followed three straight Patriots wins during which Maye threw 10 touchdown passes and one interception. New England has scored at least 24 points in each of its last four games. There is more sustained offensive evidence behind its favorite role than Miami has built from one breakthrough.
The latest personnel updates deserve attention. Brown did not practice Thursday with ankle and knee issues, and running back TreVeyon Henderson missed practice because of illness. Miami receiver Malik Washington was limited Thursday with a knee issue. These are practice reports, with Sunday availability still to be established.
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New England’s passing edge meets Miami’s ground-game route
Our assessment favors the Patriots on both sides of the ball: a B+ offense and B defense against Miami’s C offense and D+ defense. The team passing projections show a similar contrast, at about 237 yards for New England and 168 for Miami. Maye’s latest performance and the yards Miami allowed to Smith give that comparison useful recent context.
The rushing outlook is closer, with roughly 140 team yards for Miami against 129 for New England. Gordon’s production and Willis’ running last week give the Dolphins a plausible way to compete without needing to match Maye pass for pass. Miami still needs its defense to make that offensive work count against a better-rated attack.
DraftKings’ total is 43.5. New England’s last four games have gone Over, and Miami has scored 24 and 28 in its latest two after managing 10 against Minnesota. Both teams’ latest passing performances offer reasons to expect scoring opportunities, particularly against the Dolphins’ weaker defensive assessment.
The counterweights are New England’s stronger defense, our more modest passing outlook for Miami and the Patriots’ practice absences. Brown’s status is especially worth following when weighing whether New England can sustain its recent passing production. Miami’s best scoring case comes from retaining the rushing and explosive-play contributions that supported its first win.
New England brings the stronger and more established offensive case. Miami has a credible ground-based response, but last week’s defensive concessions leave it a difficult task against Maye. For bettors weighing the spread, the main issue is whether the Dolphins can combine that offensive balance with enough stops to keep the Patriots from turning their passing advantage into separation.
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