Rhamondre Stevenson had a bigger job in New England’s win over Miami: 19 carries for 82 yards, plus three catches. That matters if you’re backing the Patriots against Green Bay. His reception under doesn’t require a quiet afternoon on the ground, and he’s finished with no more than three catches in each of New England’s five wins this season.
These Patriots parlay picks pair that idea with a modest passing-yard target for Drake Maye and a reception under for Tucker Kraft. Side & Support Parlay Plays looks at Stevenson and Maye in Patriots wins, and Kraft in Packers losses, then compares those records with all of their appearances. The result is a choice of supporting props around your New England-win view, with the recent exceptions alongside them.
Patriots parlay picks for a New England win
All three records cover the player’s current club in the 2025 and 2026 regular seasons. Kraft’s five Packers losses are a particularly small sample, and the Patriots’ backfield workload has changed. Individual DraftKings prices were captured Sunday morning and can change.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All appearances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson Under 3.5 receptions |
−106 | 87.5% 14 of 16 NE wins 2025–26 regular season |
81.8% 18 of 22 appearances 2025–26 regular season |
| Drake Maye 190+ passing yards |
−348 | 100.0% 19 of 19 NE wins 2025–26 regular season |
92.0% 23 of 25 appearances 2025–26 regular season |
| Tucker Kraft Under 4.5 receptions |
−113 | 100.0% 5 of 5 GB losses 2025–26 regular season |
50.0% 8 of 16 appearances 2025–26 regular season |
Rhamondre Stevenson: under 3.5 receptions
Stevenson’s winning games this season have brought one, three, three, zero and three catches. The latest three came with TreVeyon Henderson already absent. Stevenson played 76.7 percent of the offensive snaps against Miami and carried a season-high 19 times, so the reception under held through a substantial role.
Henderson is out again, which is the important change to weigh against the longer record. Stevenson has more work available, and one more catch than last week’s three would beat this under. Five catches in each loss to Seattle and Chicago this season show that he can get there; his Chicago catches produced 93 yards.
At −106, the catch under is a different choice from under 23.5 receiving yards at −116. Three catches for 27 yards against Buffalo kept the reception under alive while beating the yardage under. Across the two regular seasons, the yardage under reached only eleven of sixteen Patriots wins, compared with fourteen for catches. Across all twenty-two appearances, those records were thirteen for yards and eighteen for catches. This option leaves room for a useful gain without needing every reception to be short.
The two regular-season winning exceptions were both five-catch games last year, against Miami and the Jets. There was a playoff exception too: four catches for eleven yards in the win over Houston. Those sit alongside last week’s support for the under. A Patriots win has often come with fewer Stevenson catches, but the expanded backfield role makes this a choice about his receiving workload, not his total involvement.
Drake Maye: 190+ passing yards
Maye’s latest win explains why the lower rung is worth a look. He threw for 199 yards against Miami, completing 16 of 20 passes for two touchdowns. He also had a 191-yard performance in a win over Miami last season. Both reached 190 and missed 200.
Keeping those two wins means paying −348 for 190+ instead of −255 for 200+. The higher offer still reached seventeen of nineteen regular-season wins, but the lower one reached all nineteen. Across all twenty-five appearances, the records were twenty for 200 yards and twenty-three for 190. Dropping again to 180+ costs −484 without adding another hit in either the winning record or the all-game sample. The choice is whether retaining those two modest passing afternoons is worth the smaller return.
His five wins this season have ranged from 199 yards to 374. The regular-season record also includes misses outside the wins; this year’s opener against Seattle brought 178 yards in a loss. New England’s receiving options are unsettled for Sunday: A.J. Brown is out, while Hunter Henry and Mack Hollins are questionable. Hollins was activated from injured reserve Saturday after a calf injury. A familiar quarterback doesn’t mean an unchanged group of receivers.
The playoffs give the strongest reason to resist treating 190 as a requirement for a Patriots win. Maye threw for 179 yards against Houston and just 86 against Denver, and New England won both games. Those are separate from the table’s regular-season record. This is a modest passing target that has accompanied regular-season wins, with clear examples of the Patriots winning another way.
Tucker Kraft: under 4.5 receptions
Kraft has caught three, four and four passes in Green Bay’s losses this season. His latest losing game, against Detroit, also shows why a catches under can be useful even when a yardage under isn’t: four receptions produced 48 yards. Three catches for 65 yards against Minnesota tell the same story.
DraftKings offered under 45.5 receiving yards at −110, but that reached only three of Kraft’s five Packers losses across the two regular seasons. Under 4.5 catches at −113 reached all five. Across all sixteen appearances, both unders reached eight. At those prices, the catch under leaves room for a long gain while asking Kraft to stay at four receptions or fewer.
His recent use makes that a meaningful risk. Kraft has caught at least five passes in four of his last five games, including all six of his targets for 53 yards in the win over Carolina. He also caught five against Chicago and Dallas, and six against Tampa Bay. His two older losing appearances had three catches against Cleveland and two against Carolina, so three of the five losing examples are from this season.
Green Bay lists him as its top tight end. Fellow tight end Josh Whyle is out, and Christian Watson has no game designation despite a rib injury and limited practices. Those are reasons to keep the current receiving mix in view rather than assume Kraft’s targets will be limited. The under fits a Patriots-win view in which Green Bay gets fewer completions to him; it doesn’t need his catches to go nowhere.
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Pick the workload that fits your Patriots view
Stevenson’s catch under leaves room for a busy rushing afternoon. If your New England view rests more on Maye moving the ball through the air, compare the payout at 190 yards with the two Miami wins that stopped short of 200. You can choose either route without taking all three props. Maye’s yards and Stevenson’s catches draw on the same passing offense, and a sportsbook can price related legs differently; their separate records aren’t a combined success rate.
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