The Pelicans have already seen two versions of Christian Braun’s three-point shooting this season. If you like New Orleans against Denver, one question is whether the Pelicans can help inside and still get back out to the shooters.
Braun’s threes under fits if you think New Orleans can keep Braun’s looks in check. Herbert Jones’s rebounds and assists give you an angle on the Pelicans’ side. He can help them finish a stop or keep the ball moving when Denver sends help toward Zion Williamson.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Herbert Jones Over 4.5 rebounds + assists |
−152 | 84.6% 22 of 26 New Orleans wins |
66.7% 46 of 69 New Orleans games |
| Christian Braun Under 1.5 made threes |
−165 | 84.2% 16 of 19 Denver losses |
74.1% 40 of 54 Denver games |
Herbert Jones over 4.5 rebounds and assists
Jones only grabbed two boards against Memphis on Friday, but three assists got him over the line. New Orleans can use him to make the next pass when Denver sends help toward Zion Williamson. If those shots don’t fall, Jones needs more of the work to come on the glass. In the two October losses to Denver, Jones finished with four combined in the first meeting and two in the second.
Jones got to five in all four New Orleans wins this season, with two landing right on five. That fits his longer record in Pelicans wins, but the October games show how much his role matters here. He played fewer than 20 minutes in each of those meetings and topped 32 on Friday. I’d look for that larger role to hold on the second night of the back-to-back.
Christian Braun under 1.5 made threes
Braun went 0-for-4 from deep in Monday’s loss at Houston, then made two of six in Denver’s win at Memphis. The Pelicans have seen both versions, too. He missed all three attempts in Denver in October, then hit three of eight in the rematch in New Orleans.
Denver can still get plenty of perimeter scoring from Jamal Murray and Cameron Johnson. Both took seven threes at Memphis, and Braun still got six looks of his own. This under fits if you expect the Pelicans to recover to Braun when Denver moves the ball out of the paint. Two makes would beat the under, so I’d pay attention to how many clean looks the Pelicans give him.
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Which prop fits a New Orleans win?
I’d start with Jones if you expect him to get the minutes he played Friday. Braun’s under fits if you think the Pelicans can help on Denver’s first action and still get back to the shooters on the weak side.
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