When Zion Williamson gets into the paint, the first question is whether Golden State can stop him. The second might matter more Monday night. If a second defender comes over, can New Orleans turn that help into an open three? That’s one way for the Pelicans to keep pace when Stephen Curry and the Warriors start scoring in bunches.
What happens after Zion draws help?
New Orleans shot 50.6% from the floor in its 139–123 loss to the Clippers on Sunday. Trey Murphy III scored 26, while Williamson and Jeremiah Fears each had 25. Even on a good shooting night, the Pelicans finished with 52 points in the paint, down from the 61.6 per game they were averaging going in. Against Golden State, watch whether Williamson can draw a defender far enough away from Murphy to give him a clean look, or whether the Warriors can contain the drive with one defender and stay home on shooters.
At the other end, Curry scored 41 in Golden State’s 126–119 overtime win over Orlando. Draymond Green had 13 assists, and Yaxel Lendeborg hit a three in overtime on his way to 23 points. That’s the trouble with sending extra help at Curry. Green can move the ball before the defense gets back into position, and someone else gets the open shot. The gap in our made-three projections, about 17 for Golden State and 11 for New Orleans, shows why the Pelicans’ kick-outs matter.
How the matchup changes at 9.5
Golden State was a 9.5-point favorite in Monday’s DraftKings lines. The Warriors have won seven straight, and four of those wins came by double digits. Orlando still managed to force overtime on a late putback. If New Orleans can finish possessions with defensive rebounds and avoid live-ball turnovers that give Curry room in transition, the Pelicans can keep the margin manageable.
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What it takes to get past 232.5
Against Monday’s 232.5 benchmark, New Orleans cleared the number seven times and Golden State five times over their last 10 games apiece. Sunday’s 262-point game showed how quickly the score can climb when both teams shoot well. Golden State’s 120–100 win over Miami showed the other possibility. The Warriors can do their share of the scoring and still finish well short if their opponent stalls.
Early on, watch what the Pelicans get when the Warriors send help inside. If those possessions end with layups or open looks for Murphy, New Orleans has a way to keep the margin close while helping push the score higher. If Golden State can stay with the shooters and make the Pelicans work for contested twos, the Warriors have more room to pull away without a shootout.
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