The Rangers bring a 6-2 record into Thursday’s visit to New Jersey, but the Devils are the home favorites—and there’s a useful matchup behind that apparent mismatch. Our projections give New Jersey a clear edge in shots, while Dylan Garand’s strong recent work gives New York a compelling counterweight. The question is whether the Devils can turn that extra shooting volume into enough production against a team that’s been getting excellent results in net.
New Jersey’s case goes beyond the records
DraftKings’ current moneyline favors the Devils despite their less impressive 3-3 start. Our shot projections put New Jersey at about 30 shots to New York’s 25. That’s a meaningful volume advantage, even though it doesn’t tell us which team will create the better chances.
The Rangers’ early-season results also have a home-road split worth noticing: they’re 5-0 at home and 1-2 away. Three road games are a small sample, but their overall record alone doesn’t fully describe the challenge of this trip.
New York still brings a dangerous scorer into the matchup. Alexis Lafreniere scored twice in Tuesday’s 4-1 win over Tampa Bay, reaching seven goals and extending his goal streak to four games. That gives the Rangers a concrete attacking threat to set against New Jersey’s projected shot advantage.
The goalie contrast complicates the 6.5 total
Garand has stopped 77 of 81 shots across his four recent appearances this season, a .951 save percentage. His latest outing included 25 saves against Tampa Bay. Jake Allen’s four recent appearances for New Jersey have produced a .885 save percentage, with four goals allowed in his latest game at Detroit. If Garand and Allen get the starts, that contrast in their recent goaltending performances is an important counterweight to the Devils’ expected advantage in shots.
It also makes the 6.5-goal total more interesting than either team’s latest score by itself. Garand’s recent play supports a more restrained scoring outlook, while Allen’s results leave room for the Rangers to produce without matching New Jersey shot for shot. Four appearances apiece offer an early read, not a settled picture.
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The Devils showed their scoring potential Tuesday, when Jack Hughes finished a Jesper Bratt pass in overtime to beat Detroit 5-4. Still, the early results don’t point consistently toward high-scoring games: New York has split its eight totals evenly, and New Jersey has done the same across six, against those games’ posted lines rather than a uniform 6.5. Our projections also have both teams receiving roughly two to three power-play opportunities, leaving little separation in expected power-play volume. That makes the contrast between New Jersey’s extra shots and Garand’s recent saves more useful at today’s total than simply chasing Tuesday’s nine-goal Devils game.
What matters most
New Jersey’s projected volume advantage is a concrete reason to look past the records, but the Rangers bring Lafreniere’s scoring form and, if Garand starts, a goalie who’s recently made opponents work hard for their goals. The biggest uncertainty is how much of that early save-percentage gap carries into this game. New York’s better record isn’t enough to dismiss the home favorite, and New Jersey’s extra shots aren’t enough on their own to make a strong high-scoring case at 6.5.
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