Lamar Jackson completed seventeen passes for 324 yards in Baltimore’s opening win this season. A productive passing day didn’t require twenty completions. That distinction matters as the Ravens prepare to visit Buffalo: a completion under can fit alongside a Baltimore win without asking Jackson to struggle.
If you’re backing Baltimore, these Ravens parlay picks let you compare Jackson under 19.5 completions with Derrick Henry reaching sixty rushing yards or Khalil Shakir getting to thirty receiving yards for Buffalo. The Ravens are 4–3 after two straight defeats; Buffalo is 5–1 and coming off its bye. Each option asks for a different contribution alongside your view that Baltimore can win.
Ravens parlay picks: a completion under, a rushing target and a Bills receiver
These records cover August 1, 2025 through October 31, 2026 with each player’s current team, including the playoffs. Jackson and Henry are measured in Ravens wins; Shakir is measured in Bills losses. Each all-game comparison uses the same dates, team and participation rule: a passing attempt for Jackson, a carry for Henry or a target for Shakir. Genuine zeroes and shortened appearances remain included.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson Under 19.5 completions |
−102 | 100.0% 9 of 9 BAL wins |
88.2% 15 of 17 appearances |
| Derrick Henry 60+ rushing yards |
−250 | 91.7% 11 of 12 BAL wins |
75.0% 18 of 24 appearances |
| Khalil Shakir 30+ receiving yards |
−219 | 100.0% 7 of 7 BUF losses |
79.2% 19 of 24 appearances |
These individual DraftKings prices were captured November 1 and can change. Jackson has only four passing appearances this season and Buffalo has lost only once, so the current samples are much smaller than the table’s longer histories. Those records don’t estimate a future parlay’s chance of clearing.
Lamar Jackson — under 19.5 completions (−102)
Jackson has finished with nineteen or fewer completions in all nine Ravens wins among his seventeen passing appearances across the two seasons. The all-game record is fifteen of seventeen. In his four appearances this season, the under has cleared in all three Baltimore wins and three games overall.
His opener against Indianapolis is the clearest example of what this option asks for. Seventeen completions produced 324 yards in a 41–23 win. Jackson then completed fifteen of twenty attempts in each of the wins over Dallas and Tennessee. Those games support a low completion count alongside effective offense; they don’t establish that Baltimore needs to suppress its passing game.
The under 31.5 passing attempts is −126 and has the same nine-of-nine winning record and fifteen-of-seventeen overall record in this history. The current-season distinction is New Orleans: Jackson completed twenty-one of thirty-one attempts in that defeat. The attempt under cleared and the completion under didn’t. At −102, the completion option costs less, while leaving more exposure to an accurate day on a modest number of throws. The two under bets are alternatives with closely related exposure, rather than separate pieces of protection.
His return is the immediate personnel issue. The AP matchup preview carried by ESPN reports that Jackson resumed practice after missing three games with an ankle injury and that Baltimore expects him back. His last passing appearance was October 4. Those missed games aren’t zero-completion clears, and an expected return doesn’t confirm his eventual workload.
There is also a winning game right at the edge: Jackson completed nineteen passes against Cleveland last September. One more completion would have changed the result of this prop. New Orleans’ twenty-one this season is the recent miss to keep beside the perfect winning column. Check that Jackson starts, then decide whether Baltimore’s route to a win still fits a passing game below twenty completions.
Derrick Henry — 60+ rushing yards (−250)
Henry has reached sixty rushing yards in eleven of twelve Baltimore wins among his twenty-four rushing appearances across last season and this one. His all-game record is eighteen of twenty-four. This season, the target has cleared in all four Ravens wins and five of seven games.
The four winning totals this season have been 144, 89, 73 and 102 yards, with between twenty-three and twenty-six carries. The seventy-three-yard Tennessee win is particularly useful when choosing the line: sixty cleared, while the main over 76.5 at −114 would have missed. Across the longer history, that main line has cleared in seven of twelve wins and twelve of twenty-four appearances.
Fifty yards at −442 has the same eleven winning-game clears as sixty, but two more overall clears: twenty of twenty-four. Those extra games were defeats. Seventy at −154 has cleared in ten of twelve wins and fifteen of twenty-four appearances, losing Henry’s sixty-four-yard win over the Jets last November. Sixty is the middle choice that preserves that modest winning contribution without paying for the fifty-yard line’s additional losing-game clears.
The last two games challenge the angle directly. Henry had fifty-eight rushing yards on seventeen carries at Cleveland, followed by forty-five on seventeen carries against Cincinnati. Both were Baltimore losses, but neither gave the sixty-yard target much protection. His workload was below each of the four winning games this season, and the latest forty-five also shows that receiving yards can’t rescue a rushing-only selection.
A Ravens win isn’t a guarantee of Henry’s number either. His sole winning miss in the longer sample was twenty-three rushing yards on eleven carries against Cleveland last September, despite Baltimore scoring forty-one points. Henry remains the expected lead back with Justice Hill also in the backfield. Jackson’s expected return may change how the offense distributes work, but it doesn’t establish a carry total for Henry. The appeal of sixty rests on the actual rushing records and the price comparison, with those recent seventeen-carry games as the warning.
Khalil Shakir — 30+ receiving yards (−219)
Shakir gives you a Buffalo player who has continued producing when the Bills lose. He has reached thirty receiving yards in all seven Buffalo defeats among his twenty-four targeted appearances across last season and this one, compared with nineteen clears overall. That includes seventy-five yards in the playoff loss at Denver, so the postseason stays in both columns.
Buffalo’s only defeat this season brought eighty-two receiving yards on eight targets for Shakir against New England. That’s just one current losing-game example. His six targeted appearances this season have produced five thirty-yard clears overall, including fifty, thirty-eight, eighty, and most recently thirty-four yards in Bills wins.
The lower alternate lines don’t improve either record here. Twenty-five yards is −309 and twenty is −455, yet both have the same seven-of-seven losing record and nineteen-of-twenty-four all-game record as thirty. Forty yards at −127 drops to five of seven defeats and fourteen of twenty-four overall. The two losing games it leaves behind are Shakir’s thirty-three yards against Atlanta and thirty-five against Philadelphia last season. Thirty keeps both without buying the more expensive lower targets.
His latest thirty-four yards against Las Vegas also make the margin tangible: four yards over thirty, on four catches from six targets. A much quieter afternoon is possible. Shakir had one catch for six yards on three targets in the Chargers game, a Buffalo win, and that miss remains in the all-game column.
The Bills’ personnel situation needs attention before treating his role as settled. DJ Moore is questionable with a shoulder injury and Dalton Kincaid is questionable with a chest injury. Shakir is expected in the receiving rotation, but those designations don’t establish either teammate’s absence or guarantee him extra targets. This option asks him to contribute in a Buffalo defeat, without assuming the Bills will stop moving the ball.
Match the support to your Baltimore view
Jackson’s completion under makes sense if your Ravens-win view leaves room for efficient passing below twenty completions. Henry at sixty gives you a rushing target below the main line, while keeping his two recent misses visible. Shakir at thirty lets you consider Buffalo receiving production alongside a Ravens victory.
You can choose the one that best fits your game view. Henry’s carries and Jackson’s passing work share the same offense, and the eventual game flow affects both teams’ opportunities. If you combine any options with Baltimore to win, use the sportsbook’s actual same-game parlay quote; these individual prices and historical percentages don’t establish combined odds or independent outcomes.
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