Miami’s first win this season brought just 27 receiving yards for Malik Washington. In each of its five losses, he had at least 43. That contrast is useful when considering Patriots parlay picks: an opposing receiver can produce a worthwhile individual total without his team winning.
New England visits Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, November 1, at 4:25 p.m. EST. For readers building around a hypothetical Patriots win, there are three choices here: a 200-yard passing target for Drake Maye, 41 receiving yards for Washington and a pass-attempt under for Malik Willis. Their different requirements matter, especially with A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson ruled out for New England.
Patriots supporting player props
These individual DraftKings offers were observed Sunday morning. Maye’s record covers August 1, 2025 through October 31, 2026 with New England, including the playoffs. Washington and Willis start August 1, 2026, covering this season’s six Miami appearances; Washington’s much weaker older record is discussed below. Maye is measured in Patriots wins, and Washington and Willis in Dolphins losses. Each all-games baseline uses the same dates, club and participation rule as its result-specific sample. Receiving requires a target and passing requires an attempt, so absent players are not credited with under hits. These rates describe separate historical outcomes, not a combined parlay probability.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye 200+ passing yards Last season + this season |
−296 | 85.7% 18 of 21 NE wins |
78.6% 22 of 28 appearances |
| Malik Washington 41+ receiving yards This season |
−113 | 100.0% 5 of 5 MIA losses |
83.3% 5 of 6 appearances |
| Malik Willis Under 27.5 pass attempts This season |
−103 | 80.0% 4 of 5 MIA losses |
83.3% 5 of 6 appearances |
Drake Maye: 200+ passing yards (−296)
Maye reached 200 passing yards in 18 of 21 New England wins across the two seasons, compared with 22 of 28 passing appearances overall. All four wins this season cleared it: 208 yards against Pittsburgh, 269 against Buffalo, 374 against Las Vegas and 235 against the Jets. He cleared in five of seven appearances overall.
The price comparison explains the lower target. DraftKings offered 210+ at −227, which covered 16 of 21 wins and 20 of 28 appearances overall. It would lose the 208-yard Pittsburgh win this season. The main over 237.5 at −111 covered 13 of 21 wins and 17 of 28 appearances, losing both Pittsburgh and the 235-yard Jets win. This season’s winning coverage falls from four of four at 200 to three of four at 210 and two of four above 237.5.
Paying −296 still leaves three winning misses in the longer record. Maye threw for 191 yards in the 38–10 win over Miami on January 4, 179 yards in the playoff win over Houston and 86 yards in the 10–7 AFC title-game win over Denver. A lower 170+ target at −740 would retain the Miami and Houston wins, covering 20 of 21 wins and 26 of 28 appearances overall. It would still miss Denver.
His latest game went well above the target—321 yards on 31 attempts in the 30–24 loss to Chicago—while the Jacksonville loss ended at 199 yards. Yardage can clear in a loss or miss by one yard. Brown’s absence and Henderson’s absence change the available offensive options; neither establishes a passing-yard boost or a fixed distribution of targets.
Malik Washington: 41+ receiving yards (−113)
Washington cleared 41 receiving yards in all five Miami losses this season, compared with five of six targeted appearances overall. The losing totals were 53 yards against Las Vegas, 43 against San Francisco, 56 against Kansas City, 67 against Minnesota and 43 against Cincinnati. His latest game, the 28–25 win over the Jets, was the miss at 27 yards on three targets.
The two 43-yard games put the margin in perspective. Washington had five targets against San Francisco and eight against Cincinnati, with both totals only two yards above this milestone. Moving up to 50+ at +139 would lose both examples, leaving three of five losses and three of six appearances covered.
Dropping to 40+ at −120 or 30+ at −219 covered the same five losses and five appearances overall as 41+. The latest 27-yard winning game missed even the 30-yard target. At 41, the slightly lighter price than 40 asks for one additional future yard; the historical sample adds no extra miss for that change.
This is specifically a current-season option for Miami’s listed lead receiver with Willis at quarterback. The longer two-season record is much weaker: six of 15 losses and seven of 23 appearances cleared 41 yards. Last January’s New England game is a direct warning, with six receiving yards on four targets in the 38–10 Miami loss. The current five-loss pattern should not be presented as a durable record across those different periods.
Malik Willis: under 27.5 pass attempts (−103)
Willis attempted at most 27 passes in four of Miami’s five losses this season, compared with five of six passing appearances overall. His losing-game attempt totals were 27 against Las Vegas, 23 against San Francisco, 36 against Kansas City, 17 against Minnesota and 27 against Cincinnati. The Kansas City game was the lone miss.
The Las Vegas and Cincinnati results sit close to the boundary: one additional attempt would turn either clear into a miss. The latest win also cleared the under, with Willis completing 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets. The under is therefore not unique to Miami losses, and this is only six games of his Miami passing history.
Under 16.5 completions at −113 covered the same four losses and five appearances overall. The attempt under has the lighter price, but the definitions differ: attempts measure how often he throws, while completions also depend on how many throws are caught. The separately offered over 27.5 attempts at −124 covered one of five losses and one of six appearances overall.
The Washington yardage option shares these same passing opportunities. Both targets cleared in the San Francisco loss, when Washington gained 43 yards and Willis attempted 23 passes, and in Minnesota, with 67 receiving yards from a game containing 17 Willis attempts. Against Kansas City, Washington’s 56 yards cleared while Willis’ 36 attempts missed the under. Those examples show how the requirements can separate without establishing a future joint hit rate.
Willis is expected to start. Miami tackle Kadyn Proctor is ruled out with a concussion, but that absence does not establish whether Miami will throw more or fewer passes.
Keep the team premise separate from the prop requirements
The January meeting already supplies the caution: New England won comfortably while Maye finished below 200 passing yards and Washington below 41 receiving yards. A Patriots win does not require either total. Use the current prices, the narrow 43-yard Washington examples and Willis’ two 27-attempt clears to decide which requirement fits your view of this matchup, then check the available offer and team news. Washington’s receiving yards and Willis’ attempt under share Miami’s passing opportunities. If combining any options with New England to win, use the sportsbook’s actual same-game parlay quote; these individual prices and records do not establish the combined price or probability.
Follow the Patriots–Dolphins event page for the matchup, and browse more NFL analysis.
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