Detroit has an inviting matchup in Vancouver on Thursday, but how much confidence should that inspire? The Canucks have lost eight straight, while the Red Wings have won just three of nine games themselves. Detroit’s -170 moneyline at DraftKings makes the price part of the question: our projections point to a modest shooting advantage rather than an overwhelming one. The bigger complication is in net, where both potential starters have struggled in their recent appearances.
A vulnerable opponent, not a dominant favorite
Vancouver has won only once across its last 10 games. Detroit is 3-3-3 this season, with three of its six outright defeats coming beyond regulation. There’s also an encouraging wrinkle in the Red Wings’ uneven start: they’ve earned at least a point in each of their last five games. Detroit has been more competitive lately, even if that hasn’t consistently translated into wins.
The betting results put that distinction in useful perspective. This season, flat one-unit moneyline bets against Vancouver have won nine of 11 games for a profit of 1.22 units. Bets against Detroit have won six of nine for a profit of 2.62 units. Vancouver has lost more often, but opposing Detroit has returned more at the historical prices. Detroit’s -170 moneyline still deserves its own assessment.
Our projections for shots on goal give Detroit about 28 and Vancouver about 25. That’s a useful edge in expected shooting volume, though it leaves room for the Canucks to stay involved. Vancouver also has an availability concern at center: Marco Rossi, part of its second-line group, is day-to-day with an illness.
Why the 6.5-goal total is tricky
The recent goaltending numbers offer a reason to take the scoring potential seriously. If John Gibson starts for Detroit, he brings an .862 save percentage across his last five appearances this season. If Kevin Lankinen gets the start for Vancouver, his corresponding figure is .817, with one relief appearance included in those five games. Neither stretch offers much reassurance, even with relatively modest shot volume in our projections.
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Vancouver’s scoring is the counterweight. The Canucks have scored three goals or fewer in each game of their eight-game skid, and six of their last 10 games finished under their respective sportsbook totals. Their defensive struggles haven’t automatically produced high-scoring games because their own scoring has often stayed quiet.
Detroit showed more scoring life Tuesday, rallying from three goals down before losing 4-3 to Seattle in a shootout. Viktor Arvidsson, Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat scored in the third period, with Raymond and DeBrincat converting on the power play. At a total of 6.5, those recent goalie struggles give the scoring outlook some upside, but Vancouver’s quiet attack and the modest projected shot volume are meaningful counterweights.
What matters most
Detroit’s five-game point streak and expected edge in shots give it the stronger recent case, but its limited win total and Gibson’s recent numbers leave little basis for calling this a comfortable assignment. Vancouver’s clearest opening is to keep the shooting gap small and get more from its attack than it has during the losing streak. That scoring contribution matters to the 6.5-goal total, too: weak recent goaltending is only part of the picture when one offense has struggled so consistently. For bettors weighing Detroit at -170, the distinction is between recognizing the Canucks’ problems and deciding how much to pay to oppose them.
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