Alperen Şengün scored 43 against Utah on Friday. Only one of his 17 baskets was a three, but Houston’s starting center has been making that shot regularly. The Rockets now take a three-game winning streak to Washington.
If you see Houston extending it, watch whether Washington gives Şengün room outside and whether the Rockets close down AJ Dybantsa at the other end. Amen Thompson’s assists add a separate question now that Houston is down two guards.
Player props for a Rockets win
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alperen Şengün Over 0.5 threes made |
−124 | 88.9% 8 of 9 HOU wins |
81.8% 9 of 11 games |
| AJ Dybantsa Under 1.5 threes made |
−184 | 100.0% 7 of 7 WAS losses |
100.0% 9 of 9 games |
| Amen Thompson Under 4.5 assists |
−121 | 90.0% 9 of 10 HOU wins |
84.6% 11 of 13 games |
Alperen Şengün over 0.5 threes made
Şengün made one of three attempts in the win over Denver and did the same against Utah. If Washington’s bigs stay near the rim when he sets a high screen, he can step outside and take the shot before they recover.
Six of his eight hits in Houston wins landed on exactly one. His overall record is close to his record in wins, and he missed both attempts in the win over Oklahoma City. Houston can have a good scoring night even if Şengün spends most of it working inside.
AJ Dybantsa under 1.5 threes made
Dybantsa scored 13 against Indiana on six two-point baskets and a free throw while missing all four of his threes. He made one of four in 44 minutes against Detroit. Houston can give this line room by getting out to him on the catch and making him put the ball on the floor.
He’s stayed under in all nine appearances, including seven Washington losses. Five of those losses ended with exactly one make. At this price, watch whether he’s getting open looks off Trae Young’s drives. It only takes one more of those shots to turn a narrow under into a miss.
Amen Thompson under 4.5 assists
Thompson had three assists in the win over Denver while Şengün and Kevin Durant had eight each. If those two keep making the first pass out of a double-team, Thompson can make an impact as a cutter without needing to create five baskets.
Fred VanVleet and Marcus Smart are out. The only Houston win in which Thompson went over was at Atlanta, where he had six assists with VanVleet inactive. If Thompson has the ball in his hands more often to start possessions, that game matters more than the win record alone.
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What to watch in Washington
The three-point props depend on how each defense closes out. For the assist under, watch who brings the ball up and starts Houston’s sets. Thompson coming off the ball is a different look from Thompson running the first pick-and-roll.
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