Buffalo heads into Tuesday’s game against San Jose as the favorite, but its recent results make that price worth a closer look. The Sabres have lost three straight, and our projections suggest a fairly small gap in shooting volume between these teams. Buffalo’s stronger attacking grade helps explain its appeal; Yaroslav Askarov’s last two appearances offer the Sharks a compelling response.
Buffalo has the stronger evaluation, not the stronger recent record
The current DraftKings moneyline prices Buffalo at -142. Our grades also favor the Sabres, with a B attack against San Jose’s C and a C defensive grade against the Sharks’ D. That gives Buffalo a case for favorite status, though both teams have won only four of their last 10 games.
The Sabres lost 4-3 in overtime at Washington on Saturday. Jack Quinn, Josh Doan and Noah Ostlund scored, but Buffalo couldn’t turn that production into a win. San Jose also enters off a defeat, falling 6-4 at Boston after winning its previous two games.
Our shot projections put Buffalo at roughly 28 and San Jose at 27. That’s a slight volume advantage for the visitors, rather than an expectation that they’ll overwhelm the Sharks with shots. It leaves room for San Jose to compete if it gets another strong performance in net.
Askarov’s recent improvement matters
If Yaroslav Askarov starts for San Jose, his two latest appearances give the home team something encouraging to build on. He stopped 29 of 31 shots against Toronto and then 41 of 43 against Ottawa, allowing two goals in each game. That’s a much sharper stretch than his .883 save percentage across his last five appearances.
Those two outings don’t erase the earlier struggles, but they do challenge a simple reading of San Jose’s lower defensive grade. Buffalo may have the stronger attack in our assessment without enjoying an easy night against the goalie.
If Colten Ellis starts for Buffalo, his recent record is less reassuring: an .864 save percentage across three appearances in October, including two starts and one relief outing. His latest appearance was October 12, so those results offer a less current read than Askarov’s. Even with that small sample, Ellis’s results give the Sharks a plausible route to offsetting Buffalo’s modest projected shooting edge.
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What that means for the 6.5 total
The scoring backdrop gives the posted total of 6.5 some support. Seven of Buffalo’s 11 games and seven of San Jose’s 12 games have gone over their respective sportsbook totals this season. Our defensive grades also leave concerns on both sides, particularly for the Sharks.
Still, our shot projections don’t suggest either team will overwhelm the other with volume, and Askarov’s recent improvement is a meaningful counterweight to those higher-scoring results. We also project around three power-play opportunities apiece. Neither team has a substantial projected advantage in the number of those chances, though how effectively they use them could matter at 6.5. The scoring case rests more on defensive concerns than on a large gap in opportunities.
The useful distinction at this price
Buffalo’s case rests on its stronger attacking evaluation, not a commanding recent record or a large projected shot advantage. If Askarov starts and sustains his recent form, San Jose has a credible way to narrow that gap. The practical distinction is between liking Buffalo’s attack and expecting a comfortable win: the modest shooting difference makes the goaltending matchup a meaningful test of the favorite’s price, while Askarov’s two strong outings temper the season’s higher-scoring backdrop at 6.5.
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