Seattle beat Arizona 31–7 in September with room for both leading receivers to contribute: Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 155 yards, while Trey McBride finished with 41. For a Seahawks win in Sunday’s rematch at Lumen Field, that game offers a useful starting point—a productive Seattle receiver and an Arizona tight end who can still collect yards in defeat.
These Seahawks parlay picks compare Smith-Njigba’s receiving yards in Seattle wins and McBride’s yards in Arizona losses with their records across all results. Side & Support Parlay Plays keeps the targets at 70 and 40 yards, respectively. Both teams are changing quarterbacks this week, which makes how much yardage you ask for particularly relevant.
Seahawks parlay picks for a Seattle win
The table uses each player’s current-club appearances across the 2025 and 2026 regular seasons. Their records in Seattle wins and Arizona losses are slightly lower than their rates across all results. These options fit a Seattle-win view without suggesting that the result makes either yardage target more likely. Individual DraftKings prices were captured Sunday morning and can change.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All appearances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 70+ receiving yards |
−256 | 94.4% 17 of 18 SEA wins 2025–26 regular season |
96.0% 24 of 25 appearances 2025–26 regular season |
| Trey McBride 40+ receiving yards |
−326 | 89.5% 17 of 19 ARI losses 2025–26 regular season |
92.0% 23 of 25 appearances 2025–26 regular season |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 70+ receiving yards
Seattle’s four wins this season brought Smith-Njigba totals of 122, 155, 76 and 150 yards. The 76 against the Chargers is the useful one when choosing a target: it covers 70, but it would miss the 80-yard alternative. A Seahawks win hasn’t required a century from their leading receiver.
DraftKings offered 70+ at −256, compared with 80+ at −177. That higher target reached only 14 of 18 Seattle wins across the two regular seasons. Across all 25 appearances, it reached 21, compared with 24 at 70 yards. Besides the Chargers game, last year’s wins included 79 yards against Arizona and 72 against Carolina. Paying for the lower target buys room for those ordinary winning performances, rather than relying on another huge game.
The 60+ alternative cost −386 and covered the same appearances as 70. Smith-Njigba’s sole regular-season miss at either target was a 23-yard game in a win over Minnesota last year. Within this history, moving down another ten yards adds cost without recovering a miss. That describes the past tradeoff, rather than proving which offer will be better value today.
Drew Lock is set to start with Sam Darnold out with quadriceps and rib injuries. Lock has no game designation after three limited practices for his elbow, while Rashid Shaheed is out with a knee injury. Smith-Njigba’s 122 yards against New England and 155 against Arizona came in the two earlier games in which Lock appeared this season. Those are full-game receiving totals, and Lock made one start across those appearances, so they don’t establish a long track record together.
The playoff counterexamples are sharper than that regular-season record suggests. Smith-Njigba had just 19 yards against San Francisco and 27 against New England in Seattle playoff wins, alongside 153 in the win over the Rams. Those games are separate from the table, but they show why even a comfortable Seahawks result can’t promise 70 receiving yards.
Trey McBride: 40+ receiving yards
McBride’s eight catches for 41 yards in the earlier Seattle meeting explain this choice well. He stayed involved on ten targets, but that volume didn’t turn into 50 yards. Arizona lost heavily, and he still cleared the lower receiving target by a single yard.
The price for 40+ was −326. Moving to 50+ at −193 offers a noticeably larger payout, but it removes three Arizona losses from the two-season record: 43 yards against San Francisco and 41 against Tennessee last year, plus those 41 in Seattle this season. The higher target reached 14 of 19 losses and 20 of 25 appearances overall, compared with 23 at 40 yards. Forty yards leaves room for useful catches without asking for a bigger gain on each one.
Going down to 30+ cost −610 and recovered one more appearance: McBride’s 31 yards against the Giants this season, his only current-season miss at 40. Thirty yards reached 18 of 19 Arizona losses and 24 of 25 appearances overall. His other miss across the two regular seasons was 27 against Atlanta last year. The smaller payout at 30 buys extra cushion, but 40 is the less expensive way to keep most of the losing-game history.
Gardner Minshew II is Arizona’s new starter after replacing Jacoby Brissett during the overtime win over Dallas. McBride finished that game with seven catches on eight targets for 72 yards; Minshew threw for 188 yards and three touchdowns in relief. McBride’s total covers the whole game, so it shouldn’t all be credited to Minshew. This is still a new starting-quarterback arrangement, with Kendrick Bourne also on injured reserve.
McBride has reached 40 yards in seven of eight appearances this year, including four of Arizona’s five losses. The Giants game shows the limitation: seven catches on twelve targets produced only 31 yards. For a Seattle-win view, his involvement is a reason to consider the lower yardage milestone, while that shortfall is a reason to avoid treating catches as guaranteed yards.
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Choose the amount of production that fits your view
If you expect Seattle’s leading receiver to contribute without needing another 150-yard day, Smith-Njigba’s 70-yard target fits that view. McBride’s 40 offers a route through Arizona’s passing game even if the Cardinals lose. Both carry substantial negative prices, so neither needs to be added automatically. Their separate records don’t establish a combined success rate or the sportsbook’s price for a same-game parlay.
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