Ottawa showed plenty of scoring resolve in Los Angeles, erasing a four-goal third-period deficit before losing 6-5 in overtime. Turning that resolve into a win at San Jose brings a different obstacle: Yaroslav Askarov, who stopped 41 shots when the Sharks beat the Senators earlier this month. Saturday’s matchup puts Ottawa’s stronger team assessment against a goalie who has recently made San Jose a harder opponent to finish off.
Ottawa’s comeback gives the attack something to build on
Dylan Cozens scored twice and Drake Batherson also scored during Thursday’s third-period rally. Shane Pinto tied the game with 1:40 left and Ottawa’s goalie pulled, before Quinton Byfield won it for the Kings in overtime. The Senators recovered from 5-1 down to earn a point, but falling that far behind was part of the same performance.
Cozens and Batherson feature on Ottawa’s second line, while Tim Stutzle centers a first line with Fabian Zetterlund and Claude Giroux. There are scoring options beyond one unit, as the comeback demonstrated. The bigger challenge is producing consistently: Ottawa scored seven against the Rangers, then just once at Vegas before the five-goal night in Los Angeles.
The Senators are 8-5-1 and have won five of their last 10 games. San Jose is 7-6-1 with four wins over its last 10. DraftKings makes Ottawa a -135 moneyline favorite, with the Sharks at +114. Our overall grades also favor Ottawa, B- against San Jose’s D+, but the earlier meeting is a useful reminder that an advantage in opportunities can still end in frustration.
Askarov has already answered a busy Ottawa night
San Jose won 6-2 at Ottawa on October 22, with Askarov saving 41 of 43 shots. He has allowed no more than two goals in each of his four latest appearances. Across his last five appearances, he has stopped 152 of 164 shots for a .927 save percentage. That’s the strongest specific counterweight to the favorite’s case.
The Sharks’ latest win needed both patience and a late scoring burst. Will Smith scored twice against Vancouver, with his tying goal followed 11 seconds later by Mason Marchment’s winner in a 3-2 comeback victory. Marchment had a goal and an assist, and Macklin Celebrini added an assist for his 16th point of the season. San Jose trailed 2-0 entering the third period, so it hardly controlled the result from the start.
Samuel Ersson offers a different recent profile in Ottawa’s net. His last five appearances include three starts and two relief outings; together, he stopped 93 of 110 shots for an .845 save percentage. In Los Angeles, he entered after Jonas Johansson and saved 20 of 22 shots. That relief work was better than his combined recent rate, but the broader sample leaves Ottawa with more to prove in net than San Jose.
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The total turns on two very different goalie samples
The total is 6.5. Ottawa’s season has produced eight Unders in 14 games, yet its latest outing was an 11-goal overtime game and the earlier meeting with San Jose also went Over. The Sharks’ last two games have gone Under, including a 2-0 loss to Buffalo before the Vancouver comeback. San Jose’s recent goaltending has been steadier than its scoring.
Askarov’s run provides a clear restraint on Ottawa’s offense at this threshold. Ersson’s recent results and the Senators’ goals conceded offer the opposing pressure, while Cozens and Batherson have just shown how quickly Ottawa can score when chasing a game. Our shot projections call for about 29 for Ottawa and 26 for San Jose, with roughly three power-play opportunities apiece. That favors the Senators modestly in shooting volume, but it isn’t the kind of gap that makes Askarov’s recent performance easy to dismiss.
Ottawa has the stronger team grade and enough attacking depth to challenge the Sharks. San Jose’s firmer answer is Askarov’s recent work, backed by evidence from this very matchup. For the favorite, a steadier defensive performance is as important as repeating the late scoring surge; another game spent digging out of a large deficit would play directly into the uncertainty around its price. The key is whether Ottawa can turn its attacking depth into sustained pressure without needing another rescue act.
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