Montreal has the fresher legs and a productive attack, but San Jose’s expected starter offers a reason to look beyond the favorite’s price. Alex Nedeljkovic has stopped nearly 92% of the shots he’s faced across his last three appearances this season, setting up an interesting test for a Canadiens team that has scored four goals in each of its last three games. Montreal has several advantages; how much those are worth depends partly on whether its attack can break through against a goalie who’s been playing well.
Montreal has advantages, but the price asks plenty
DraftKings has Montreal at -205, with San Jose the +170 underdog. The Canadiens have a clear schedule advantage: Montreal last played Saturday, while the Sharks are traveling from Toronto for the second half of a back-to-back.
San Jose lost 3-1 to the Maple Leafs on Monday, with Toronto scoring twice on the power play before adding an empty-net goal. That puts discipline firmly in the conversation. Our power-play projection gives Montreal about three opportunities, making San Jose’s ability to handle those situations an important part of the matchup.
We rate Montreal’s attack a B compared with San Jose’s C, giving the Canadiens another advantage. Cole Caufield supplied the latest example of their scoring threat, scoring twice, including the overtime winner, in Saturday’s 4-3 victory over Buffalo. Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky join him on Montreal’s top forward line.
The counterweight is Nedeljkovic's recent work. Across his last three appearances this season, he has allowed seven goals on 87 shots, good for a .920 save percentage. It’s a small sample, but those results give San Jose a concrete route to staying competitive despite the schedule disadvantage. Montreal’s stronger attack and extra time between games make its favorite status understandable; they don’t automatically make -205 an attractive price.
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Why the 6.5-goal total deserves a closer look
Montreal’s games have gone over their posted totals in six of eight outings this season. San Jose has been less scoring-friendly, with five of its nine games finishing under. The Canadiens’ three consecutive four-goal performances support the case for goals at the posted 6.5 total, while the Sharks’ results and Nedeljkovic’s early work pull the other way.
Our projections also suggest a fairly even shooting workload—about 26–27 shots per team—not a large Montreal advantage in volume. That puts more focus on what the Canadiens can get from their top line and power-play chances rather than an expectation that they’ll simply overwhelm San Jose with shots. At the other end, expected Canadiens starter Jacob Fowler has a .900 save percentage across his last four appearances this season. Those results include a 30-save shutout, but also three appearances in which he allowed three goals, leaving room for San Jose to contribute to the scoring.
Montreal’s attack and rest advantage make a stronger case for its favorite status than for a runaway result. Nedeljkovic’s recent saves are the clearest challenge to both the Canadiens’ price and an easy high-scoring reading of the matchup. San Jose’s discipline is especially worth watching: after two power-play goals helped beat the Sharks on Monday, limiting those opportunities would reduce one important route for Montreal’s attack to turn its advantages into goals.
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