San Jose has more wins, but Detroit has the favorite’s price. That’s the interesting tension heading into Saturday’s Sharks–Red Wings matchup: the DraftKings moneyline has Detroit at -135 despite a 2-3-2 start, while the 4-3-0 Sharks are +114. Our analysis gives Detroit some advantages, but recent results in net make this a tougher sell than the odds alone suggest.
San Jose’s wins have come the hard way
The Sharks edged Nashville 3-2 in a shootout on Thursday, with Macklin Celebrini scoring the shootout’s only goal. All four of San Jose’s wins this season have come beyond regulation. That matters for this moneyline matchup: the Sharks have found ways to finish close games, even though they haven’t yet won one in regulation.
Those wins have also rewarded bettors. Across San Jose’s seven games this season, flat one-unit outright bets on the Sharks returned a historical profit of 1.51 units. That adds a betting perspective to their winning start, though those returns came at earlier prices—not Saturday’s +114.
Detroit also comes off a narrow win, having beaten Philadelphia 2-1 on Thursday on Andrew Copp’s late goal. Our grades favor the Red Wings more clearly at the defensive end: Detroit earns a B- compared with San Jose’s D. The attacking grades are closer, at C+ for Detroit and C for San Jose. That gives the favorite a supported case, but not one built around an overwhelming scoring advantage.
The goalies complicate the 6.5 total
The expected goalies are John Gibson for Detroit and Yaroslav Askarov for San Jose. Across their five most recent appearances this season, Gibson has an 86.3% save percentage and Askarov an 84.8% mark. Gibson allowed five goals in each of his last two appearances; Askarov allowed five in his latest outing. Those results are a meaningful counterweight to Detroit’s stronger defensive grade. Neither goalie played in Thursday’s win for his team, so those low-scoring results don’t show a rebound from either expected starter.
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At the posted total of 6.5, there are competing signals. Each team has recorded four unders in its first seven games, although those games were played against varying totals. Our shot projections call for about 28 from Detroit and 26 from San Jose, plus roughly three power-play opportunities apiece. That’s a modest shooting advantage for the Red Wings rather than a huge volume gap. The recent goalie struggles give the scoring outlook more upside, while the teams’ mixed attacking grades and early under results pull the other way. The projected power-play opportunities add scoring chances for both sides, but offer little separation between them.
What matters most
Detroit’s stronger defensive evaluation and small projected shooting edge give it a reasonable matchup case despite the worse record. San Jose’s four wins beyond regulation—and profitable start for outright bettors—show why the record can’t simply be brushed aside. Still, Detroit’s projected volume advantage is small enough that another rough outing from Gibson could erase it. The favorite’s case rests more on delivering the stronger defensive performance we expect than on overwhelming San Jose with shots; Gibson’s recent form is the clearest reason to approach that case cautiously.
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