Ottawa looks like a reasonable favorite against San Jose, but its latest win came with a complication that matters tonight: Linus Ullmark left with an injury. The Senators have won seven of their last 10 games, and our projections give them a modest shooting advantage over the Sharks. The bigger question is whether their goaltending can support that advantage on the second night of a back-to-back.
Ottawa’s win came with a concern in net
The Senators beat Florida 5-1 on Wednesday, getting goals from five different players. But Ullmark needed help leaving the ice early in the third period, and Samuel Ersson finished the game facing just one shot. Ullmark’s latest injury update describes him as day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
If Ersson gets the start against San Jose, Ersson's recent starts deserve a closer look than that brief relief appearance. His four most recent appearances include two starts, in which he allowed 11 goals on 61 shots. The other two outings came in relief, so Wednesday’s quiet finish offers little evidence that those struggles are behind him.
That makes Ottawa's -135 moneyline at DraftKings worth weighing against more than its winning record. San Jose is +114, and the Sharks have split their last 10 games, most recently edging Montreal 4-3 in overtime on Tuesday. Ottawa has the better recent results, but its situation in net adds a meaningful counterweight to the favorite’s case.
There’s also a longer-view reason not to dismiss San Jose’s moneyline history: backing the Sharks outright in each of their past 86 games over the last year returned 18.94 units on flat one-unit bets, with 44 wins and 42 losses. That’s useful context for a team with mixed recent results, rather than a verdict on today’s price.
A modest shooting edge, not a runaway
Our shot projections put Ottawa at about 29 and San Jose at 26. That supports an expectation of more shooting volume from the Senators, though the gap isn’t large enough to make the Sharks’ attack an afterthought.
San Jose’s own goaltending adds another wrinkle. Yaroslav Askarov has an .861 save percentage across his five most recent appearances, but his latest outing was much stronger: he stopped 29 of 31 shots against Toronto on Monday. If he starts, that performance is a useful counterpoint to the rougher five-game sample.
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Why the 6.5-goal total needs a fresh look
Seven of Ottawa’s last 10 games have gone under their posted totals. Eight of those lines were 5.5, making that low-scoring history relevant to tonight’s higher total of 6.5. San Jose’s last 10 games, meanwhile, have split evenly between overs and unders.
The goalie evidence complicates a straightforward low-scoring read. Ersson’s two recent starts and Askarov’s five-game sample show why modest shooting volume might not keep scoring down. Askarov’s latest performance points the other way. At 6.5, the useful distinction is between a matchup with modest projected shooting volume and one with dependable recent goaltending—the evidence supports the former more clearly.
Ottawa’s stronger results and projected shooting edge give the favorite a credible foundation, but neither provides much cushion if its goaltending struggles. Ersson’s one-shot relief appearance doesn’t resolve that concern, while Askarov’s rebound against Toronto keeps the scoring outlook from being one-sided. The practical takeaway is to weigh Ottawa’s situation in net alongside its 7-3 recent record, rather than letting that record or its run of unders carry the assessment.
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