Dallas finally got its first win with a shutout, but Buffalo should offer a different test. The Sabres have won two straight after overcoming multi-goal deficits, giving the Stars a resilient opponent. Dallas’s defensive performance was encouraging; now the challenge is backing it up against a Buffalo team we expect to generate more shots.
A convincing win, with a tougher test ahead
The Stars beat San Jose 5-0 on Monday, with Jake Oettinger stopping all 14 shots he faced. Jamie Benn had a goal and an assist, while Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson and Mikko Rantanen also scored. Dallas got contributions from several important players after scoring just once across its first two games.
The light workload for Oettinger matters when weighing that result. Dallas handled San Jose comfortably, but keeping Buffalo quiet may require more saves. Our shot projections put the Sabres at about 28 shots and the Stars at about 26—an edge in expected shooting volume for Buffalo, even after Dallas’s standout result.
Buffalo edged Minnesota 3-2 on Tuesday after beating Chicago 4-3 on Saturday. The Sabres overcame multi-goal deficits in both wins. That’s encouraging for Buffalo, though avoiding another early deficit would give it a cleaner path against Dallas.
Why the moneyline remains close
The current DraftKings moneyline has Dallas at -118 and Buffalo at -102, making the Stars only a slight favorite to win outright. Our grades give Dallas a stronger defensive assessment: an A- compared with Buffalo’s C+, with Jake Oettinger and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen expected in goal. We give both teams a B for their attack.
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That defensive separation gives Dallas a useful strength, but Buffalo’s projected shot advantage is an important counterweight. The Sabres can make this competitive by generating shooting opportunities and getting a strong night from Luukkonen. For the Stars, the challenge is to carry Monday’s scoring contributions into a game that could ask more of Oettinger.
What matters most
Dallas’s shutout is a promising reset, but Oettinger only had to face 14 shots. Our stronger defensive assessment gives the Stars a credible foundation; Buffalo’s consecutive comeback wins and higher expected shot count make this a more demanding test. How Oettinger handles that potentially busier night is the clearest pressure point in a closely priced matchup.
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