Jaylen Warren ran for 127 yards in the first Bengals game, and Pittsburgh sealed the three-point win with a late takeaway. The rematch comes with both teams at 6–2 and first place in the AFC North up for grabs.
If you see Pittsburgh winning again, start with how often it gets to hand the ball to Warren. DK Metcalf’s catches show how much the Steelers might need from their lead receiver, while Joe Burrow’s interceptions give you a way to look at how the defense could affect the game.
Player props for a Steelers win
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren Over 13.5 rushing attempts |
−109 | 83.3% 5 of 6 PIT wins |
75.0% 6 of 8 games |
| DK Metcalf Under 4.5 receptions |
−144 | 83.3% 5 of 6 PIT wins |
75.0% 6 of 8 games |
| Joe Burrow Over 0.5 interceptions thrown |
−115 | 80.0% 4 of 5 CIN losses |
37.5% 6 of 16 games |
Jaylen Warren over 13.5 rushing attempts
Warren carried 17 times for 127 yards against Cincinnati in September. He’s reached 14 carries in Pittsburgh’s last five wins, and he’s handled 59% of its rushes since Rico Dowdle returned. If Pittsburgh can stay close enough to keep handing it off, there’s room for Warren to get to 14 even with Dowdle involved.
The line was close in Tampa Bay, where Warren finished with exactly 14 carries. He had 18 the following week against New Orleans while Dowdle added 86 yards from scrimmage. A long run helps the offense, but watch whether Warren is still getting the first carries on the next drive.
DK Metcalf under 4.5 receptions
Metcalf scored on one of his three catches in the first meeting. Aaron Rodgers also found Darnell Washington for 67 yards and Warren for 49 through the air. If Cincinnati keeps limiting gains outside the numbers, Rodgers has options inside and underneath even when Metcalf is on the field for nearly every pass play.
The under hit in five of six Steelers wins, with Tampa Bay the exception. Metcalf caught 11 in that win, then had two in New Orleans and one against Cleveland. At −144, the under depends on Pittsburgh spreading out its throws or keeping the passing volume down. Metcalf still leads the team in targets.
Joe Burrow over 0.5 interceptions thrown
Burrow threw at least one interception in four of the five Cincinnati losses he played since the start of 2025, compared with six of 16 games overall. Only two of those losses came this season. He threw two picks on 54 attempts against Jacksonville, the kind of volume Pittsburgh could force if it gets ahead and stays there.
Burrow threw 37 passes without a pick in the first Steelers game. Pittsburgh’s late takeaway came on a strip sack. For the interception over, watch whether the rush can hurry Burrow while Pittsburgh still has enough defenders in coverage to contest the throw.
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What to watch if Pittsburgh gets ahead
If you expect a tight game, Warren can reach 14 carries without Pittsburgh needing a big lead. If you expect the Steelers to get ahead early, watch whether their defense can keep Cincinnati in passing situations long enough to threaten a takeaway.
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