Aaron Rodgers threw for 212 yards in Pittsburgh’s win over New Orleans last week. Jaylen Warren accounted for thirty-six of them and DK Metcalf another fifty-six. That distribution is useful for this rematch: a Steelers win can leave room for both receivers, without requiring Rodgers to reach his main passing-yard line.
If you’re backing Pittsburgh in the rematch, these Steelers parlay picks let you compare Rodgers reaching 200 passing yards with smaller contributions from Metcalf at thirty receiving yards or Warren at twenty-five. The two 5–2 teams meet again after Cleveland won 27–24. You can choose one part of Pittsburgh’s passing game without needing to add every option.
Steelers parlay picks: where to set the passing targets
Rodgers and Metcalf’s records cover Pittsburgh games from August 1, 2025 through October 31, 2026, including the playoffs. Warren’s row starts August 1, 2026, covering this season’s seven games; his weaker older receiving record is discussed below. Each all-game comparison uses the same dates, club and participation rule as the winning record: a passing attempt for Rodgers or a target for the receiver.
| Player & prop | Odds | In Steelers wins | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers 200+ passing yards Last season + this season |
−200 | 86.7% 13 of 15 wins |
70.8% 17 of 24 appearances |
| DK Metcalf 30+ receiving yards Last season + this season |
−356 | 85.7% 12 of 14 wins |
78.3% 18 of 23 appearances |
| Jaylen Warren 25+ receiving yards This season |
+116 | 100.0% 5 of 5 wins |
100.0% 7 of 7 appearances |
These individual DraftKings prices were captured November 1 and can change. Warren’s five wins and seven games are a small current sample. All three options draw on Pittsburgh’s passing opportunities; their separate records don’t establish a combined success rate.
Aaron Rodgers — 200+ passing yards (−200)
The 200-yard target has been reached in thirteen of Rodgers’ fifteen Pittsburgh wins across the two seasons, compared with seventeen of his twenty-four passing appearances overall. He’s cleared it in all five Steelers wins this season and six of seven games. That gives the lower alternate line a fuller winning history than the main over 221.5 at −111, which has cleared in nine of those fifteen wins and eleven of the twenty-four appearances.
Last week’s 212 yards show the difference clearly: enough for 200, short of 222. Pittsburgh also won its opener with 221 passing yards from Rodgers. You don’t have to ask for an unusually productive afternoon to use the lower target, although the −200 price is a meaningful cost for that room.
There’s a useful comparison one step either way. His 180+ line is −357, but it has the same thirteen winning-game clears as 200+. It adds just one all-game clear, moving the overall record from seventeen to eighteen of twenty-four. At 210+ and −153, the winning record falls to eleven of fifteen and the overall record to fourteen of twenty-four. For this particular Steelers-win premise, 200 keeps more of the old winning games without paying for the extra twenty-yard cushion.
The misses still belong in the picture. Rodgers threw for 139 yards in a win over New England last September and 116 in a win over Cincinnati last November. The Cincinnati appearance included only fifteen attempts; a team win didn’t require a full passing workload, and that game remains a miss here. This season’s 187-yard game against New England was a loss. Conversely, his 299 yards in the first Cleveland meeting came in a defeat—passing production alone won’t deliver the team result.
Rodgers is the expected starting quarterback. Pittsburgh’s recent wins have come with 235, 253 and 212 passing yards, rather than one repeated yardage level. The appeal of 200 is the space it leaves beneath those recent totals, with the older low-volume wins as the reason to resist calling it automatic.
DK Metcalf — 30+ receiving yards (−356)
Metcalf has reached thirty receiving yards in twelve of fourteen Steelers wins among his twenty-three receiving appearances with the club. This season, that’s four of five wins and five of seven games. The current miss is worth keeping in mind before paying for a lower yardage request.
The threshold matters to the price. Twenty-five yards is −478 and twenty is −650; both retain the same twelve winning-game clears as thirty. Their all-game records improve to nineteen and twenty-one of twenty-three, respectively, but the additional clears came in defeats. If you’re building around a Pittsburgh win, thirty avoids some extra cost without discarding a winning game that either lower target captured.
Moving up to forty at −211 does surrender two winning clears: Metcalf had thirty-two yards in a win over New England last September and thirty-one in this season’s Cincinnati win. The forty-yard record is ten of fourteen wins and fourteen of twenty-three overall. Thirty is the point that keeps those more modest afternoons, while acknowledging that −356 is still a heavy individual price.
The latest results are encouraging: ninety-three yards on fifteen targets against Tampa Bay, followed by fifty-six on six targets against New Orleans. Yet Pittsburgh’s win over Indianapolis immediately before those games brought only twelve receiving yards on four targets. Metcalf caught three passes and added eleven rushing yards that day; neither the catches nor the rushing yards turn a receiving-yard miss into a clear. His other winning miss was a six-yard game against Indianapolis last season.
Metcalf remains the expected leading wide receiver, but leading the depth chart doesn’t reserve the targets for him. Warren, Germie Bernard and the tight ends also have roles in this passing game. Metcalf’s 115 receiving yards in the first Cleveland meeting demonstrate the available production, while that Pittsburgh loss is another reminder that the receiving line and the moneyline ask different questions.
Jaylen Warren — 25+ receiving yards (+116)
Warren offers a different price and a different evidence limit. He’s reached twenty-five receiving yards in all five Pittsburgh wins this season—and all seven of his targeted appearances. The two losing games cleared as well. This is a current receiving-usage angle that can fit with a Steelers win, rather than a claim that his yardage has separated wins from losses this season.
His receiving totals have been 27, 34, 49, 33, 87, 28 and 36 yards, with between four and six targets each time. That repeated involvement matters more here than his eighty-seven-yard high against Indianapolis. The opener’s twenty-seven and the Tampa Bay game’s twenty-eight also show how close two of the clears were to twenty-five.
The longer history is substantially less convincing. Across last season and this one, Warren has cleared twenty-five in eight of fourteen Steelers wins and twelve of twenty-two targeted appearances. Last season alone, that was three of nine wins and five of fifteen appearances. He finished the playoff loss to Houston with four receiving yards on one target, and had eight yards on two targets in the December win over Detroit. Those games remain in the older comparison; the table’s current-season row doesn’t erase them.
The present usage is why this season gets the emphasis: all seven games have supplied at least four targets, whereas several of last season’s winning appearances supplied only two. Pittsburgh lists Warren first in the backfield and Rico Dowdle second, so there is still another back competing for work. Four targets also aren’t a promise of twenty-five yards, even though Warren has converted this season’s opportunities into that total so far.
The current over 21.5 receiving yards is −109, while the twenty-five-yard alternate is +116. Both have cleared in all seven games this season. Thirty yards at +168 has cleared in three of the five wins and five of seven appearances, dropping the twenty-seven- and twenty-eight-yard winning games. Twenty-five keeps those two narrow clears at a bigger payout than 21.5, while giving up the room for a finish from twenty-two to twenty-four yards.
Choose the support that matches your Steelers view
Start with how much receiving work you expect Warren to keep getting. Twenty-five yards offers plus money, but the older low-target games are the reason to question whether this season’s involvement will continue. If you’d rather leave the choice of receiver open, Rodgers’ 200-yard line gives you that route; his latest 212-yard win shows the room it buys beneath the main over.
Rodgers can reach his number through different receivers, while Warren and Metcalf can take shares of the same yardage. Choose the contribution that fits your view. If you combine options with Pittsburgh to win, use the sportsbook’s actual same-game parlay quote; multiplying these historical rates won’t tell you the combined price or chance of clearing.
Use the Browns–Steelers matchup page for the live game context, and the NFL page to compare the rest of the slate.
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