Pittsburgh has the better record and stronger grades in our analysis, but Tampa Bay just found a convincing way to win: lean on Bucky Irving and give Jalon Daniels a manageable afternoon. Whether that rushing breakthrough carries over is the central question against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite, and our projections suggest the gap in overall production could be smaller than the teams’ starts imply.
Two running backs coming off big games
Jaylen Warren gave Pittsburgh much more than steady rushing production in its 34-22 win over Indianapolis on Sunday. He ran for 101 yards and caught six passes for 87 more, scoring on an 80-yard reception and a 50-yard run. Aaron Rodgers added three touchdown passes as the Steelers improved to 3-2.
Tampa Bay’s breakthrough was even more ground-heavy. Irving ran for 165 yards in the Buccaneers’ 24-16 win at Dallas on October 8, including a 72-yard run that set up a touchdown. Tampa Bay finished with 241 rushing yards. Daniels completed 19 of 25 passes for 189 yards, and the offense avoided turnovers as the Bucs earned their first win after four losses.
Daniels is set for his third straight start while Baker Mayfield recovers from a thumb injury, the Associated Press reports. That makes the Dallas performance a useful blueprint: Tampa Bay showed it could produce without asking its rookie quarterback to carry the game through the air.
Why Pittsburgh’s edge may still mean a close game
With Rodgers and Daniels at quarterback, our offensive grades favor Pittsburgh, B to C. We also rate the Steelers’ defense more highly, B+ to Tampa Bay’s C+. The strongest matchup challenge for the Bucs is sustaining their running game against the unit we rate most highly in this game.
Yet our yardage projections are much closer than that grade comparison might suggest. We project roughly 305 total yards for Pittsburgh and 300 for Tampa Bay. The Steelers have the passing-yardage advantage, about 200 to 180, while the Bucs have the rushing advantage, about 120 to 105. Those figures give Tampa Bay a credible route to staying competitive, though they also suggest a substantial step back from its rushing explosion in Dallas.
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A 39.5 total meets contrasting recent results
The sportsbook total of 39.5 deserves a closer look because these teams arrive with different scoring patterns. Pittsburgh’s last three games have gone over their respective totals, with the Steelers scoring 30, 24 and 34 points. Tampa Bay’s last three have gone under, with the Bucs allowing 23, 17 and 16 points. But the Dallas under came against a total of 49.5, so that result alone offers little support for an under at this lower number.
There’s support for a restrained scoring environment in Pittsburgh’s strong defensive grade and our modest yardage expectations. The counterweight is what both backfields just showed: Warren scored twice from long range, and Irving’s 72-yard run helped set up a quick touchdown drive. At 39.5, that ability to create scoring opportunities in a hurry matters more than simply carrying forward either team’s recent over/under streak.
The matchup hinges on Tampa Bay’s ground game
Pittsburgh’s stronger unit grades fit its favorite status, but Tampa Bay’s rushing advantage in our projections keeps this from looking like a one-sided matchup. The useful test is whether Irving and the Bucs can generate reliable production without needing another 241-yard rushing day. If they can, Daniels has a workable path to keeping Tampa Bay competitive. If Pittsburgh sharply reduces that support, more falls on a passing game we project to produce about 180 yards. Tampa Bay’s ground game is the strongest counterweight to the Steelers’ broader advantages—not a reason to assume the Dallas breakthrough will repeat.
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