Tennessee led Cleveland 14–0 and Cincinnati 13–0 and lost both games. If you see the Titans beating Jacksonville, the question is whether they can keep the game on their terms once the Jaguars respond.
Tony Pollard gives Tennessee a way to keep drives going on the ground. Trevor Lawrence’s pass attempts tell the other side of that story. A lead that holds into the second half can force Jacksonville to spend more of the game throwing.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard 60+ rushing yards |
−102 | 100.0% 4 of 4 TEN wins |
56.0% 14 of 25 games |
| Trevor Lawrence Over 28.5 pass attempts |
−126 | 83.3% 5 of 6 JAX losses |
68.0% 17 of 25 games |
Tony Pollard · 60+ rushing yards
Pollard ran for 76 yards on 19 carries in Tennessee’s comeback at Indianapolis, its only win this season. That’s the kind of workload that can get him to 60 without a breakaway run. He also went for 129 against Cleveland and 117 at Cincinnati. Those were losses, but Tennessee stayed close enough to give him 25 and 21 carries.
Jacksonville enters the game fifth in rushing defense at 89.5 yards allowed per game, and Tennessee will be without guard Peter Skoronski. In last season’s meetings Pollard landed on exactly 60 in Nashville and finished with 48 in Jacksonville. If the Titans spend drives in third-and-long, it gets harder for him to see enough carries to make up for that front.
Trevor Lawrence · Over 28.5 pass attempts
Lawrence finished with 41 attempts against Houston, a game Jacksonville trailed by 10 entering the fourth quarter. He also hit this line in the loss at Denver, though 29 attempts was the minimum he needed. Tennessee can give up completions and still keep this in play if it makes Jacksonville drive the length of the field.
The timing of a Tennessee lead matters. In the lone miss in Jacksonville’s loss sample, the Jaguars led Houston by 19 in the second half before losing, and Lawrence threw only 23 times. If the Titans need another last-minute comeback, Lawrence may spend too much of the game with the lead to get to 29.
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When do you see Tennessee taking control?
Pollard’s line fits if you expect Tennessee to stay close enough to keep handing him the ball. Lawrence’s attempts fit better if the Titans can play from ahead for stretches. If your case for Tennessee is a late swing on a turnover or special teams play, Pollard can still get his yards in a close game while Jacksonville has little time to change its approach.
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