Buffalo beat Minnesota on Monday night by giving James Cook III 31 carries and mixing in quick throws from Josh Allen. The Bills head to MetLife on a four-game winning streak. New York gets another game with Breece Hall, who returned from a five-game absence last week.
If you see a Buffalo win, consider whether the Bills can control the game through Cook while still giving Allen enough chances to move the ball. Hall’s touchdown line offers a way to look at how often the Jets can turn their own drives into points.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III Over 18.5 rushing attempts |
−121 | 85.7% 6 of 7 BUF wins |
75.0% 6 of 8 games |
| Josh Allen 210+ passing yards |
−221 | 85.7% 6 of 7 BUF wins |
87.5% 7 of 8 games |
| Breece Hall No touchdown scored |
−155 | 93.8% 15 of 16 NYJ losses |
75.0% 15 of 20 games |
James Cook III · Over 18.5 rushing attempts
On the drive that widened Buffalo’s lead over Minnesota, nine of the 15 plays were Cook runs. He finished with 31 carries, but he didn’t need a workload that big to get to 19 in the other wins. He carried at least 21 times in six of Buffalo’s seven wins this season.
New York’s run defense has struggled more since the opening weeks, according to Buffalo’s matchup preview. If the Bills can stay ahead of the chains, there’s room to keep giving Cook the ball. The exception among the wins came at Houston, when he had 13 carries and Buffalo still scored 36. A win driven by big plays through the air can take carries away.
Josh Allen · 210+ passing yards
Allen threw for 234 yards against Minnesota on the same night Cook carried 31 times. Buffalo found yards after the catch on quick throws, so a game with plenty of runs still gave Allen a path to this number. He also landed on exactly 210 on 19 attempts against the Rams.
The 210-yard alternate costs more than the 220-yard line, and the difference mattered in that Rams game. Allen still fell short with 204 against the Chargers. He’s reached 210 about as often overall as he has in Buffalo wins. The case rests on what he does with the throws Buffalo calls, especially if the Bills spend the fourth quarter running.
Breece Hall · No touchdown scored
Hall returned against Kansas City and produced 87 yards from scrimmage without scoring. The Jets could use him on early downs and short throws while still coming up empty near the goal line. Entering this week, New York had scored touchdowns on 40.7% of its red-zone trips.
The no-touchdown result has been more common in Jets losses, including all three Hall has played in this year. He scored in the season-opening win over Tennessee. If the Jets can get him goal-line carries or he breaks one from farther out, that historical split offers little protection.
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How do you see Buffalo winning?
Cook’s carries fit a win built around sustained drives. Allen’s alternate fits if you see Buffalo doing damage on its passing downs even with a lead. The Hall line focuses on whether the Jets finish drives through their lead back, regardless of how many yards he gets on the way there.
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