Denver just showed how dangerous it can be when Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray take over. Now comes a different test: playing well enough throughout the night to justify being a 7.5-point favorite against Golden State. The Warriors are 0-3, but with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green expected back, this isn’t quite the same team that lost in Phoenix on Saturday.
A comeback win isn’t the same as a comfortable favorite
Murray scored 42 points and Jokic added 35 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists as Denver rallied from 23 points down to beat New Orleans 141-135 in overtime on Saturday. That was an impressive rescue, though Denver still failed to cover an 11.5-point spread. The Nuggets enter this matchup 1-1 and haven't covered in either of their first two games.
That distinction matters at the current DraftKings spread. The Nuggets’ stars have just delivered a huge performance together, but allowing New Orleans to shoot 65.9% in the first half created a hole that required nearly everything they produced.
Golden State brings a meaningful change in personnel. The Warriors’ official preview says Curry and Green are expected back after resting in Phoenix. Even without them, Golden State scored 122 points: rookie Yaxel Lendeborg had 26, including six 3-pointers, and De’Anthony Melton added 25 in the 131-122 loss to the Suns. Those contributions give the Warriors something encouraging to build on as their familiar leaders return.
The quieter numbers favor Denver’s control
Our projections give Denver an advantage in two areas that could help it avoid another frantic finish: about 12 turnovers compared with 15 for Golden State, and roughly 45 rebounds compared with 41. That points toward fewer giveaways and an advantage on the boards—a concrete way for the Nuggets to play a steadier game without needing another extraordinary scoring rescue.
Golden State’s counterweight is the personnel change. Saturday’s scoring came without Curry and Green, so the winless record alone doesn’t capture the group Denver will face. There are also fresh availability concerns on both sides: Warriors forward Gui Santos is questionable with left knee tendinitis, while Denver forward Cameron Johnson is doubtful with an ankle injury.
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Don’t let overtime set the scoring expectation
At a total of 236.5, Denver’s latest game makes a high-scoring matchup easy to picture, but overtime helped inflate that result, and the Nuggets scored just 84 points in their opener at Oklahoma City. Golden State scored 105 and 108 in its first two games before reaching 122 in Phoenix. Curry’s expected return strengthens the Warriors’ scoring options, while those earlier results show how uneven the opening week has been. The returning personnel make Saturday’s lineup an imperfect guide, just as Denver’s overtime finish makes its final score a shaky baseline.
There’s a longer historical scoring angle, too: 52 of Denver’s 88 games over the past year went over, producing a profit of 11.47 units from flat one-unit bets on the over. That’s useful background, not a reason to treat 236.5 as automatically favorable—those games had different totals and personnel circumstances.
Denver’s strongest case is its star production paired with the cleaner ball-security and rebounding outlook in our projections. Golden State’s returning core is the main reason not to assume that control will come easily. For the spread, Denver’s ability to limit giveaways and win the rebounding battle matters more than the drama of Saturday’s comeback. At 236.5, Curry’s return adds scoring potential, but the uneven opening-week results leave less reason to treat Denver’s overtime fireworks as the expectation.
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