Yaxel Lendeborg and Brandin Podziemski kept Golden State fighting after Stephen Curry left Wednesday’s loss in Houston. Now comes a tougher question: can that offense keep finding good shots against Victor Wembanyama and a San Antonio team riding 10 straight wins? The Warriors showed they can compete without Curry. Sustaining that offense for a full game is Friday’s test.
Golden State has something to build on
The Warriors’ 115-108 loss ended an eight-game winning streak, but Lendeborg supplied 25 points and 10 rebounds, and Podziemski scored 22. There were chances late, too. Threes from Georges Niang and De’Anthony Melton cut Houston’s lead to three early in the fourth quarter before the Rockets answered with eight straight points. Golden State could generate a rally; it couldn’t string together enough stops to finish one.
Curry is out with an oblique abdominal tear, while De’Aaron Fox and Devin Vassell are questionable for San Antonio. That makes Golden State’s shot creation the central issue, but it doesn’t mean the Warriors are starting from scratch. Golden State has outscored opponents by 2.3 points per 100 possessions across 318 minutes without Curry this season. Those stretches offer encouragement; Friday asks whether that success can hold up without Curry available to return.
Lendeborg and Podziemski don’t have to duplicate Wednesday’s scoring to make this competitive. What matters is whether their possessions produce clean perimeter looks or repeated difficult finishes near Wembanyama. We’ll watch whether Golden State can move the ball after the first drive gets stopped rather than asking one player to rescue the possession.
San Antonio’s streak has included some escapes
The Spurs overcame a 22-point deficit to beat Chicago 124-119 on Wednesday. Wembanyama finished with 32 points, nine rebounds and five blocks, while Dylan Harper added 18 points, 10 assists and four steals. San Antonio opened the third quarter with an 18-3 run fueled by five Chicago turnovers. That’s the danger for Golden State: a few loose possessions can turn a manageable game into a chase.
Chicago also showed how to make the Spurs uncomfortable, starting 10-for-12 from three and scoring 41 first-quarter points. San Antonio recovered, but Golden State’s perimeter shooting gives it a route to testing that defense again. Fox’s hip soreness and Vassell’s left adductor tightness matter at the other end. Fox supplied 17 points and nine assists in Chicago; if he can’t play, San Antonio loses a creator who helped drive its latest win. Harper’s performance is encouraging, not a guarantee that replacing that production would be seamless.
The spread asks more than another Spurs win
San Antonio is an 11.5-point favorite, and the total is 218.5. The case for laying the points rests on the Spurs turning Golden State’s disrupted offense into empty trips and creating separation before the Warriors can settle into their shooting rhythm. A slow start like the one in Chicago would make that price much harder to justify.
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There’s a useful distinction in the recent results: San Antonio has won its last 10 games but covered in five; Golden State has covered in eight of its last 10 regular-season games. Winning and creating a comfortable margin haven’t been the same thing for the Spurs. Golden State’s case for taking the points depends on keeping turnovers from arriving in bunches and getting enough creation from Lendeborg and Podziemski. We’d want Fox and Vassell’s availability settled before treating San Antonio’s offense as intact.
Our rebounding projections favor San Antonio, 48.9 to 41.2, while our turnover projections are 12.1 for the Spurs and 15.3 for the Warriors. Those are two ways the favorite could build separation without relying on a hot shooting night. For Golden State, finishing defensive possessions and avoiding the kind of turnover burst that sparked San Antonio’s Chicago comeback are essential.
Can both offenses carry the total?
The total presents a different question: can Golden State contribute enough scoring without Curry, and how much creation will San Antonio have available? Wednesday’s Warriors-Rockets game reached 223 points despite Curry’s early exit. That keeps the over argument alive, especially if Golden State’s perimeter shots fall and the Spurs can answer through Wembanyama and their guards.
But Wembanyama’s five blocks in Chicago illustrate the obstacle to easy Golden State baskets. If the Warriors struggle to finish inside and Fox or Vassell sits, the under becomes easier to build a case around. The rebounding advantage has two implications here: extra San Antonio possessions could support scoring, while fewer second chances would make Golden State more dependent on its first shot. We’d pass on treating Curry’s absence alone as the answer to this threshold; the Spurs’ guard availability and Golden State’s ability to create clean looks matter together.
Watch the possessions after the first stop
Watch what Golden State does when its opening action goes nowhere, and whether San Antonio turns those stalled possessions into a run. That’s where this matchup could shift quickly. Before committing, visit the NBA betting board to compare the available numbers once Fox and Vassell’s status becomes clearer.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
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