Minnesota’s unbeaten start against the spread now faces a very different test: Anthony Edwards is out with a knee injury after scoring 47 points in the Timberwolves’ last game. Golden State arrives with its first win, but Yaxel Lendeborg, who led that breakthrough with 31 points, is questionable with a foot injury. Those availability changes make the recent scorelines a tricky guide to a matchup in which Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite.
Minnesota’s strong start meets a major absence
The Timberwolves are 3-1 and have covered the spread in all four games this season. Historical flat one-unit spread bets on Minnesota returned about 3.54 units across those four games. Their first three games were wins by at least 22 points, so there’s more behind the start than a few fortunate finishes.
Monday’s 127-125 overtime loss at Cleveland was their first defeat. Edwards scored 47 on 19-for-33 shooting, while Jaden McDaniels and Terrence Shannon Jr. each added 14. Edwards’ absence removes the player responsible for much of that night’s scoring, making it harder to carry Minnesota’s recent offensive results straight into this game.
There is still a useful point in the Timberwolves’ favor beyond that scoring history. Our projections have Minnesota collecting about 47 rebounds to Golden State’s 43. That gives the home team a plausible advantage on the boards, an area worth watching as it tries to build a winning performance without Edwards.
Golden State’s breakthrough comes with its own question
The Warriors beat Denver 134-114 on Monday after losing their first three games. Lendeborg supplied 31 points and 12 rebounds, and Stephen Curry scored 24, including 21 after halftime. Golden State made 22 of 44 three-pointers and won the rebounding count 50-36.
That performance gives the Warriors a stronger recent result to bring into this visit. But Lendeborg’s questionable status matters after he led them in both scoring and rebounds against Denver. His availability bears directly on how much of Monday’s successful performance Golden State can bring back tonight. Curry’s second-half scoring offers another concrete reason for encouragement, without requiring the Warriors to count on the same contribution from every player.
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Why the 228.5 total needs a fresh look
Golden State’s last two games produced 253 and 248 combined points, but the latest win included 50% shooting from three-point range. That’s a demanding shooting performance to carry forward. Minnesota’s overtime loss also came with Edwards scoring 47; he won’t be available to repeat that contribution here.
Those details matter more to the 228.5 total than simply seeing two high-scoring final results. Minnesota’s first three games this season all finished Under their respective totals, with opponents scoring 106, 93 and 94 points. Golden State’s recent shooting success is the counterweight, particularly if Lendeborg plays. The scoring outlook turns on what these available groups can produce, rather than assuming Monday’s individual performances and shooting carry over intact.
What to watch before backing the recent form
Minnesota has the stronger start and a favorable rebounding outlook, but its four covers came before this latest Edwards absence. Golden State has shown a much better offensive ceiling than its 1-3 record suggests, with Lendeborg’s status now central to how much weight that Denver win deserves. Check his availability before leaning heavily on the Warriors’ breakthrough, and judge Minnesota’s favorite status with the scoring burden it now has to redistribute.
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