Toronto finally pulled even against Colorado, then gave the lead back 51 seconds later. Minnesota survived a late equalizer in Montreal and won on Kirill Kaprizov’s overtime one-timer. Those two finishes frame this matchup: can the Maple Leafs turn their offense into a lead they can protect, or will the Wild make another close game theirs?
Minnesota can win without a scoring rush
The Wild’s 2-1 overtime win in Montreal wasn’t just another Kaprizov finish. Bobby Brink broke a scoreless tie in the third period by turning a Montreal turnover into a breakaway goal. Jesper Wallstedt stopped 27 shots, and Minnesota didn’t concede until Nick Suzuki jammed home a loose puck with Montreal’s goalie pulled. The Wild found enough offense without needing to trade goals.
That fits their seven wins in their last 10 games. Minnesota allowed two goals or fewer in eight of those games. Against Toronto, that gives the Wild a practical route to staying in control: make the Leafs work for their offense, then capitalize when a puck comes loose. Brink’s breakaway is the example to keep in mind—not a promise that Toronto will hand over the same chance.
If Wallstedt gets the start, his last five appearances give that approach some backing. He stopped 121 of 130 shots for a .931 save percentage and allowed only five goals across the most recent four. The important question is whether Toronto can force him into repeated saves within the same possession rather than letting one stopped shot end the attack.
Toronto needs its next goal to stick
The Leafs showed some scoring life in their 6-3 loss to Colorado. Darren Raddysh and Easton Cowan each contributed a goal and an assist, and Jack Roslovic tied the game 3-3 early in the third. But Gabriel Landeskog restored Colorado’s lead 51 seconds later. Toronto has now lost four straight and six of seven; the problem isn’t simply finding a goal, but getting something lasting from it.
Sergei Bobrovsky’s recent appearances sharpen that concern if he starts. He has allowed 20 goals on 140 shots across his last five outings, an .857 save percentage. That sample includes Tuesday’s five goals allowed; Colorado’s sixth went into an empty net. Minnesota doesn’t need an overwhelming shot count to create trouble if Toronto keeps allowing goals at that rate.
The blue-line availability also deserves attention. Morgan Rielly’s latest supplied report lists him as day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Minnesota’s Brock Faber remains on injured reserve, with his report pointing toward a possible Saturday return rather than establishing availability here. Changes on either blue line could alter how comfortably these teams move the puck out of their own end.
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Moneyline: the stronger case still needs the right price
The DraftKings moneyline has Minnesota at -170 and Toronto at +142. The case for paying Minnesota’s price starts with its ability to keep opponents quiet and the recent contrast between the prospective goalies. We’d want that defensive control to carry over, not merely assume Toronto’s losing streak will continue.
Our shot projections put Minnesota at 29.2 and Toronto at 26.3. That’s a modest volume advantage, not a forecast of constant Wild pressure. At -170, Minnesota needs to do more than edge the shot count: it needs to prevent Toronto’s skilled forwards from turning a handful of possessions into a scoring burst.
Toronto’s +142 becomes more interesting if its goaltending stabilizes and its offense can build on Tuesday’s contributions beyond the usual headliners. Cowan, Raddysh and Roslovic supplied all three goals against Colorado. Another spread of contributors would give Minnesota more to handle. Without better protection of those goals, though, the home price alone isn’t enough to make the Leafs appealing.
Total: 6.5 asks which goalie story carries over
The total of 6.5 creates a different decision. Minnesota games have finished Under their posted totals in 14 of 20 games this season. Wallstedt’s recent work helps explain how the Wild can keep a game below seven goals even when their own offense contributes.
Toronto’s recent goaltending pushes the other way. A continuation of Bobrovsky’s five-appearance results could leave Minnesota doing much of the scoring needed to threaten this threshold. Tuesday also showed how a close game can grow late: Toronto tied it in the third, Colorado answered quickly, and an empty-net goal added to the final tally.
We’d weigh the prospective starters heavily before treating either scoring story as the one to follow. Our shot projections don’t suggest a barrage, which matters more to the total than Minnesota’s slight volume edge matters to the moneyline. The Over needs efficient finishing or extra scoring opportunities; the Under needs Minnesota’s suppression to hold without Toronto’s end unraveling. A goalie change would be a reason to reassess both arguments.
Watch what happens after Toronto scores
The revealing stretch may be the shift right after a Leafs goal. Can Toronto settle the game, or does Minnesota immediately put it back under pressure? Watch that response, the goalie assignments and the blue-line availability, then visit the NHL betting board to compare the updated moneyline and total with the rest of the slate.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
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