Seattle keeps finding ways to win, but protecting a lead has been another matter. The Kraken have surrendered multi-goal third-period advantages in consecutive games and still escaped with victories. Now Minnesota visits as the betting favorite, bringing a projected shooting edge that could make another late lapse costly. For Seattle, sustaining its winning form starts with making those early advantages last.
Seattle’s wins come with a warning
The Kraken beat Utah 5-3 on Thursday after letting a 3-1 lead disappear. Mackie Samoskevich supplied the late go-ahead goal, and Philipp Grubauer made 33 saves. That followed a 4-3 shootout win over Detroit in which Seattle surrendered a three-goal third-period lead.
Those finishes capture both sides of Seattle’s appeal. The Kraken have won six of their last 10 games and enter with a 7-3-1 record, but their last two victories required a response after a comfortable advantage vanished. Minnesota has gone 5-5 across its last 10, so recent results alone don’t make the visiting favorite an obvious choice.
DraftKings’ moneyline has Minnesota favored at -155, with Seattle at +130. Our grades favor the Wild, too: Minnesota earns a B+ overall against Seattle’s C, with the stronger assessment both in attack and defensively. That gives Minnesota’s favorite status some support in our analysis, while Seattle’s results provide a useful counterweight to judging this game on grades alone.
More shots for Minnesota, but a real goaltending counterweight
Our shot projections give Minnesota about 29 shots on goal to Seattle’s 26. That’s a modest volume advantage—not an overwhelming gap—but it suggests a busier night for Seattle’s goalie.
Grubauer’s recent work in goal offers Seattle an encouraging counterpoint. Across his last five appearances this season, he has a .907 save percentage, stopping 146 of 161 shots. Jesper Wallstedt has stopped 105 of 118 shots for an .890 save percentage across his own last five appearances for Minnesota. Those short stretches favor Grubauer on save percentage, although Wallstedt has the lower goals-against average, 2.59 to 2.89. Grubauer has handled more shots, so the comparison is more mixed than either number alone suggests.
Minnesota’s latest loss also shows why shooting volume needs context. The Wild fell 2-1 at Calgary on Thursday despite putting 37 shots on goal. Devin Cooley stopped 36, and both Calgary goals came on first-period power plays. Minnesota generated plenty of shots, but special teams and the opposing goalie shaped the result.
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What that means for the 6.5 total
Seattle’s games have gone over their posted totals in nine of 11 games this season. Betting one unit on the over in each would have returned a historical profit of 6.86 units. Minnesota brings a different recent pattern: six of its last 10 games stayed under their respective totals.
At the current 6.5 total, Seattle’s recent lead troubles make late scoring a genuine concern, while Minnesota’s quieter recent totals and Grubauer’s five-appearance save percentage push back against simply expecting another high-scoring Kraken game. Our projections put power-play opportunities near three per team, with little separation between them. After Minnesota’s loss at Calgary, how those chances are used deserves attention alongside the modest projected shot gap.
Minnesota’s strongest case is the combination of better team grades and an expected edge in shooting volume. Seattle’s winning form and Grubauer’s recent ability to stop a higher share of shots keep that advantage from looking decisive. The Kraken’s task is to avoid making another late rescue necessary: against a visitor expected to generate more shots, protecting an early lead would give their recent success a firmer foundation. For the total, the contrasting scoring histories and similar projected power-play opportunities leave special-teams execution more informative than either team’s trend alone.
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