Nashville has the more encouraging recent goaltending numbers, but that’s a relative advantage rather than a comfortable one. The Predators host the San Jose Sharks with both expected goalies coming off five-goal outings, making this a test of whether Nashville can turn its edge in net into a steadier performance. With the Predators a modest moneyline favorite and the total at 6.5, the useful distinction is between having the better recent numbers in goal and actually keeping this game under control.
Nashville’s advantage comes with a warning
The current DraftKings moneyline makes Nashville a -142 favorite. Our grades also favor the Predators: we give Nashville a C overall against San Jose’s D+, with the clearer separation on the defensive side, C to D. Both attacks receive a C.
The expected goalies, Juuse Saros and Yaroslav Askarov, help explain why that defensive comparison matters. Saros has a .897 save percentage across his five most recent appearances this season, compared with Askarov’s .848 over five appearances for the Sharks. Askarov allowed at least three goals in each of those games. Saros has shown a wider range, including outings with one and two goals allowed, but he also surrendered five in two of the five.
With that pairing, Nashville has the stronger recent evidence—but Saros’s inconsistency makes it hard to treat the home favorite as a comfortable choice. The Predators are 2-2-2, while the Sharks are 3-3-0.
San Jose has a way to keep it close
The Sharks’ latest loss wasn’t short on attacking contributions from Macklin Celebrini. He scored a power-play goal and set up another in Tuesday’s 6-3 loss to Boston. San Jose pulled within one in the third period before the Bruins stretched the lead again. That gives the Sharks a concrete positive to carry forward, even after allowing six.
Our projections for shots and power-play opportunities put both teams near three power plays and suggest a relatively small shooting gap: roughly 28 shots for Nashville and 26 for San Jose. That’s a modest expected volume advantage for the Predators, not an overwhelming one. San Jose’s special-teams production on Tuesday is a reminder that Nashville may need more than a few extra shots to separate.
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Why the 6.5-goal total is a closer call
The recent goalie results create a clear concern for anyone considering the under at 6.5, especially with power-play chances in the picture. But our shooting projections don’t point to overwhelming volume. The results have been mixed, too: across each team’s six most recent games this season, three went over their respective sportsbook totals and three went under. Those lines varied between 5.5 and 6.5, so the split offers context rather than a direct record against tonight’s number.
The longer historical picture adds another counterweight. Over the past year, 45 of 84 Nashville games went under, producing a profit of 2.00 units from flat one-unit under bets. That history spans different opponents and prices; tonight’s more immediate issue is whether Saros can deliver something closer to his better recent outings while Askarov improves on a difficult five-appearance stretch.
Nashville’s stronger recent goaltending and better defensive grade give its favorite status some support, but the projected shooting gap leaves little room for that advantage to disappear. Celebrini’s recent power-play contributions give San Jose a concrete way to offset a modest deficit in shots. For both the moneyline and the 6.5 total, Saros’s ability to limit the damage during those opportunities matters more to this matchup than Nashville simply finishing with a few extra attempts.
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