New Orleans is still looking for its first win, but Saturday’s meeting with Denver showed how misleading that can be. The Pelicans built a 23-point lead before losing in overtime. Wednesday’s rematch gives them another chance to finish the job, while the Nuggets arrive with defensive problems that survived their comeback.
The comeback wasn’t a clean bill of health
Denver beat New Orleans 141-135 on Saturday behind 42 points from Jamal Murray and a 35-point, 15-rebound, 10-assist night from Nikola Jokic. The Pelicans shot 65.9% in the first half and still led by 19 entering the fourth quarter. Denver’s stars rescued a game that New Orleans had controlled for long stretches.
The Nuggets then lost 134-114 to Golden State on Monday. The Warriors made 22 of 44 three-pointers and won the rebounding battle 50-36; Jokic finished with 19 points, seven rebounds and 11 assists in Monday’s loss. After conceding 135 points to the Pelicans, including overtime, Denver allowed another opponent a big offensive night in regulation.
For New Orleans, Saturday supplied a more encouraging starting point than its 0-3 record suggests. Trey Murphy III scored 26, Dejounte Murray added 22, and Zion Williamson and Derik Queen scored 17 each. The problem was maintaining that advantage through the finish, not finding anyone who could score.
A smaller spread, with plenty still to prove
DraftKings has Denver as a 4.5-point road favorite. The Nuggets won Saturday without covering an 11.5-point spread at home, and they have yet to cover in three games this season. New Orleans has covered twice in its three losses. That distinction matters here: the Pelicans’ search for a win and their ability to stay inside a spread are different questions.
Our projections have rebounds nearly even at about 43 per team, which offers Denver a better outlook on the glass than Monday’s result. We also project about 31 assists for the Nuggets and 27 for the Pelicans. That points to more assisted baskets for Denver, but Saturday showed that New Orleans can create a substantial lead against this opponent too.
Cameron Johnson is doubtful with an ankle injury for Wednesday, an availability concern for Denver at forward. That deserves attention before treating the Nuggets’ personnel picture as settled. It does not erase the scoring threat from Jokic and Jamal Murray, who drove the previous comeback.
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How much scoring carries into the rematch?
The total is 240.5. All three Pelicans games this season have gone Over their respective totals, as have two of Denver’s three. Our offensive grades are A- for both teams, while Denver’s defense grades C+ and New Orleans’ D+. There is a clear case for another game in which both attacks have room to work.
The caution is in using Saturday’s final score as a template. Overtime contributed to that result, New Orleans shot exceptionally well in the first half, and Denver needed huge scoring nights from its two stars. Monday’s defensive struggles add substance to the scoring case, but another 141-135 finish would require more than simply replaying the matchup on paper.
Denver’s comeback ability is established in this pairing; sustained control is the part it still needs to show. New Orleans has already demonstrated enough offense to make the favorite work, with closing out a lead its next test. That makes the quality of Denver’s defense across the whole game more useful to watch than either team’s win total alone.
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