Lightning at Predators: Tampa Bay’s depth meets Nashville’s power-play threat

Tampa Bay’s latest win showed why Nashville has more to worry about than the Lightning’s first line. Pontus Holmberg, Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli combined for 10 points against Winnipeg, giving the favorite another way to generate offense. Nashville’s best reply comes through Filip Forsberg and a productive power play, making Saturday’s matchup a test of Tampa Bay’s scoring depth against the Predators’ ability to exploit their opportunities.

The Lightning can score beyond their biggest names

Holmberg had a goal and three assists in Thursday’s 6-4 win, while Hagel and Cirelli each contributed a goal and two assists. They form Tampa Bay’s second forward line for this matchup. Tampa Bay’s four-goal second period included Cirelli’s power-play goal, with Holmberg later scoring into an empty net. That last detail matters when weighing the six-goal finish.

Brayden Point also scored against Winnipeg and features on the first line with Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov. Our grades give Tampa Bay’s attack a B+ against Nashville’s C. The Lightning have won seven of their last 10 games and sit at 8-3-1 overall, giving their favorite status support from both recent results and the broader attacking assessment.

DraftKings prices Tampa Bay at -170 on the moneyline, with Nashville at +142. There’s still a difference between winning often and rewarding bettors: backing the Lightning for one unit in each of their 12 games this season would have produced about 0.20 units of historical profit despite eight wins. Those were different prices, but the modest return is a useful reminder to examine what today’s favorite costs.

Nashville’s power play supplies a real counterweight

The Predators are 4-4-5 and have won only three of their last 10. Yet their latest 4-3 loss to Washington included two Forsberg goals and three Roman Josi assists. Forsberg scored on a two-man advantage and had a power-play goal in three consecutive games. Ryan O’Reilly also extended his points streak to four games, with three goals and four assists over that stretch.

O’Reilly and Steven Stamkos feature on Nashville’s first line, with Forsberg on the second and Josi on the first defensive pair. O’Reilly’s full-game points market is set at 0.5, with the Over priced at -150. His recent production gives that market relevant context, though a four-game run alone doesn’t establish value at that price. For the matchup, the more important point is that Nashville has a supported source of offense even while outright wins have been scarce.

Our projections call for roughly three power-play opportunities per team. Tampa Bay’s projected penalty count is higher, at about five against Nashville’s four, but the power-play opportunity estimates are nearly level. That makes Nashville’s recent conversion particularly interesting without assuming the Predators will receive a large advantage in chances.

Recent goalie results complicate the 6.5 total

Tampa Bay’s last four games have gone Over, as have Nashville’s last three. The Lightning have scored at least three goals in each of those four games, but they’ve also allowed four or more in the latest three. Nashville has scored 12 goals across its last three outings. There’s substance behind the recent scoring pattern on both sides of the matchup.

The goalie form adds a different comparison. Andrei Vasilevskiy has an .866 save percentage across his last five appearances for Tampa Bay, allowing 17 goals on 127 shots. Juuse Saros has a .907 save percentage over his last five for Nashville, with 14 goals allowed on 151 shots. Saros has the stronger recent rate, while Vasilevskiy’s last two appearances included nine goals allowed on 44 shots.

At a total of 6.5, Tampa Bay’s multiple scoring threats and Nashville’s power-play form support taking the offensive evidence seriously. The counterweight is our A- defensive grade for the Lightning, compared with Nashville’s C, alongside Saros’ stronger recent save rate. The gap between that strong team assessment and Vasilevskiy’s recent results is worth watching.

Tampa Bay has the deeper demonstrated scoring case and better recent winning record. Nashville’s route to making the favorite uncomfortable is more specific: keep its productive power play going and get enough from Saros to stay close. That’s a firmer underdog argument than the Predators’ win total suggests, though it still has to answer Tampa Bay’s second-line production.

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