Nashville beat Carolina while taking far fewer shots, using Filip Forsberg’s passes across the ice to find open finishers and Juuse Saros’s saves to protect the lead. Colorado offers another test of that approach Thursday. The Avalanche have the stronger attack in our grades and a projected shot advantage, but their latest game showed how quickly a favorite can end up chasing.
Forsberg found room on the other side
Forsberg took the puck from Sean Walker and passed across the ice for Nick Perbix’s opening goal against Carolina. He later found Roman Josi for a tap-in. Saros stopped 29 of 30 shots as Nashville won 4–1, with the final goal coming into an empty net, the AP reported. Those two Forsberg passes gave Nashville a way to make its limited chances count by forcing the goalie to move across his crease.
Our shot projections give Colorado about 33 shots and Nashville about 27. That makes Saros’s work important if he gets the start, while putting a premium on what Nashville creates with its own chances. The volume gap doesn’t tell us how dangerous each shot will be; Forsberg’s passing against Carolina is a good example of why that distinction matters.
The saved DraftKings moneylines have Colorado at -218 and the Predators at +180. Nashville has a plausible route through saves and well-created openings, but backing the underdog means asking it to produce that combination again against an attack with more projected opportunities.
Colorado has offense to recover with
The Avalanche had won three straight before losing 7–2 in Columbus. The Blue Jackets scored 28 seconds into the game and got goals from six players. Cale Makar and Nazem Kadri scored for Colorado, which had beaten Chicago 5–2 the previous night, according to the AP.
Colorado had scored five in each of its three straight wins before Columbus. That gives the home favorite a credible way to answer even if Nashville finds an early goal. Avoiding another immediate deficit would help: a level game would let Colorado keep working for chances without needing to make up lost ground. Its recent scoring is a reason to take that response seriously, while the Columbus loss keeps us from treating the favorite’s price as a guarantee of control.
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Saros is the counterweight at 6.5
Colorado’s last seven games went over their respective totals, all set at 6.5. That is also the listed total for Thursday, but the possible starting goalies give us something else to weigh. Saros stopped 91.3% of shots across his last five appearances. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 90.1% across his last five for Colorado, including a relief appearance in Columbus. Neither is confirmed to start.
If Saros handles another busy night, Colorado’s extra shots could leave the score close without pushing it high. Nashville’s passing offers the other possibility: if the Predators turn a few of those openings into goals, Colorado has recently shown it can supply offense in response. The seven-game over run includes both comfortable Avalanche wins and heavy losses, so it describes the recent scoring without telling us who will control Thursday.
Watch what happens when Nashville tries to get the puck across the middle in the offensive zone. If Colorado closes that lane and keeps the Predators outside, Nashville will have a harder time offsetting the projected shot gap. If Forsberg can find another open finisher, Saros may have a lead worth defending. That contest between Colorado’s volume and Nashville’s ability to create a better look is the useful thread to follow for both the moneyline and the total.
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